How the AI Sell-Off Reveals Fiscal Strain
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Long Treasury yields aren’t down despite the AI rout, so their rise is about big deficits
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The desk views the recent surge in long-end Treasury yields as a reflection of robust economic growth coupled with significant government debt issuance amidst evolving investor preferences. Per the full note from UBS, the substantial 10-year Treasury yield rise to 5.04% is attributed to strong data showing 6.5% nominal growth, suggesting the economy's resilience is outpacing interest rate concerns. This landscape is driving a fundamental repositioning among fixed income investors, especially as AI-related fundraising continues to heighten market dynamics.