(IMES Newsletter) 2026 BOK/ERI - BOJ/IMES Joint Research Workshop
At a Glance
Lead — The desk anticipates a strengthening of the JPY in light of recent discussions between the Bank of Korea and the Bank of Japan regarding monetary policy collaboration. Per the full note source, the joint workshop highlighted the importance of regional economic stability, which could influence the JPY's trajectory. With upcoming GDP data on May 19, traders should be vigilant about potential shifts in market sentiment. Current positioning suggests a cautious approach as the market digests these developments.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk believes that the recent joint workshop between the Bank of Korea and the Bank of Japan may lead to a more coordinated approach to monetary policy, potentially strengthening the JPY. Per the full note source, discussions included key insights from central banks such as the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the Reserve Bank of Australia, indicating a broader regional focus on economic stability.
Supporting this view, upcoming GDP growth rate data for Q1 2026 is expected to provide critical insights into Japan's economic performance, which could further bolster the JPY if results exceed expectations. Analysts are particularly focused on the balance of trade figures set to be released shortly after the GDP data, as these could also impact JPY sentiment.
The alternative read would be that if the GDP data disappoints, it could lead to a reversal in JPY strength, particularly if the market perceives a lack of economic momentum in Japan.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for USD/JPY is 1.075, with a range of 1.04 to 1.12. Notable firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26) - citi: 1.12 (Mar26)
This view aligns closely with jpmorgan, which is positioned at the upper end of the consensus range, while bofa presents a more bearish outlook at the lower end. The desk's call suggests a potential for upward movement in the JPY, countering the more cautious stance of some firms.
How other firms see it
Firms like jpmorgan and citi are aligned in their bullish outlook for the JPY, anticipating a strengthening based on upcoming economic data and regional cooperation. Conversely, bofa remains skeptical, projecting a weaker JPY based on differing economic forecasts.
Traders should also keep an eye on the USD/JPY pair as it reflects the broader sentiment surrounding the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, especially in relation to the upcoming GDP and trade balance data.
What the calendar says
With the GDP growth rate and balance of trade data scheduled for May 19 and May 21 respectively, these events will be crucial in shaping market expectations for the JPY. Traders should prepare for potential volatility around these releases, particularly if they deviate from consensus forecasts.
What changed vs prior statement
- 01BOJ revised Consumption Activity Index methodology following 2020 GDP base year revision and structural economic changes.
- 02BOJ held 9th joint research workshop with Bank of Korea, involving central banks from Philippines, BIS, and Australia.
- 03English version of consumption index revision paper under preparation; currently available only in Japanese.
From the original
IMES Newsletter : BOK/ERI-BOJ/IMES Joint Workshop April 30, 2026 Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Bank of Japan IMES Newsletter : BOK/ERI-BOJ/IMES Joint Workshop (Link to the IMES website) The Bank of Korea and the Bank of Japan held the 9th joint workshop in March 2026. Researchers from both central banks, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, the Bank for International Settlements, and the Reserve Bank of Australia had lively discussions. IMES Newsletter (Link to the IMES website) The IMES…
Related speeches
4 items(IMES Newsletter) 2026 BOK/ERI - BOJ/IMES Joint Research Workshop
The desk believes that the recent joint workshop between the Bank of Korea and the Bank of Japan signals a collaborative approach to regional monetary policy, which could influence currency dynamics in the coming months. Per the full note [source], discussions included key stakeholders such as the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the Reserve Bank of Australia, highlighting a broader regional focus on economic stability. The upcoming GDP growth rate and trade balance data for Japan could further inform market sentiment and positioning. As such, traders should remain vigilant about how these developments may impact the JPY's trajectory against major currencies.
Indicators for Core CPI
Lead — The desk sees the Bank of Japan's focus on core inflation indicators as a pivotal element in shaping monetary policy and influencing JPY dynamics. Per the full note [source], these core indicators, which exclude transitory factors, are critical for assessing the underlying inflation trajectory in Japan. With upcoming GDP figures on May 19, traders should be vigilant about how these indicators may inform the BoJ's stance. Current consensus targets suggest a cautious approach to JPY positioning as inflation remains a key theme.