FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
Live cross-firm bank consensus across 38 desks — FX, oil & gold
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FRANCE: France’s economic outlook is deteriorating rapidly. With inflation edging higher again and domestic demand weakening, a recession now looks increasingly likely
The desk maintains a cautious outlook on the EUR/USD amid reported declines in consumer and business confidence in France, which signal a weakening economic backdrop. Evidence from recent surveys shows the business climate index dropped to 96 in September, alongside a persistently low consumer confidence level at 86, well below the long-term average. Per the full note [source], this economic fragility may position France as an underperformer within the eurozone, impacting the euro's strength against the dollar. Current consensus targets for EUR/USD remain around 1.1684 for December 2026, though individual forecasts present notable divergence.