Japanese yen slowly erases intervention-driven gains as macro backdrop remains negative
At a Glance
The desk views the Japanese yen as facing continued bearish pressure, primarily due to persistent negative macroeconomic fundamentals and ineffective intervention measures. Per the full note from Giuseppe Dellamotta, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) recent decision to maintain interest rates at 0.75% reflects a cautious stance amid rising inflation forecasts and downgraded growth expectations linked to geopolitical tensions. With the Fed's shift away from an easing bias and the potential for increased economic activity post-conflict, the yen's outlook remains bleak. Upcoming US economic data, particularly the NFP report, could further influence USD/JPY dynamics.
Key Takeaways
- 01The Japanese yen remains bearish due to negative macroeconomic fundamentals.
- 02The BoJ's decision to maintain interest rates reflects a cautious approach amid inflation concerns.
- 03Geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, could influence global energy prices and inflation.
- 04Upcoming US economic data will be crucial in shaping the USD/JPY outlook.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk argues that the Japanese yen is likely to remain under pressure as macroeconomic conditions continue to deteriorate. Per the full note source, the BoJ's decision to keep rates unchanged, coupled with dissenting votes for a hike, highlights the central bank's struggle to balance inflation and growth amidst external uncertainties.
The recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, have implications for global energy prices and, consequently, inflation. The Fed's potential pivot towards rate hikes in response to sustained inflation could further weaken the yen, as higher US rates typically bolster the dollar against other currencies.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for USD/JPY is 1.075, with a range of 1.04 to 1.12. Notable firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26) - citi: 1.12 (Mar26)
This view aligns with jpmorgan, which sees a similar trajectory for the yen, while bofa presents a more bearish outlook, suggesting divergence in expectations around the yen's resilience against the dollar.
How other firms see it
Firms like jpmorgan and citi are aligned in their bearish outlook for the yen, anticipating continued weakness against the dollar. Conversely, bofa holds a contrary view, expecting a stronger yen due to potential shifts in market sentiment.
The trajectory of USD/JPY is closely tied to the outcomes of the upcoming US NFP report and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, which may provide insights into the Fed's future monetary policy direction.
What the calendar says
With the US NFP report and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey scheduled for today, these events could significantly impact USD/JPY dynamics, particularly if they reveal stronger-than-expected labor market conditions or consumer confidence.
Market Implications
Watch for USD/JPY around the 156.50 support level; a break below could signal further declines towards 155.00. The upcoming NFP report may also shift market sentiment significantly.
USD/JPY — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Morgan Stanley | Bullish | 140.00 |
UOB | Bearish | 159.80 |
ING | Bullish | 152.00 |
From the original
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar regained some ground yesterday following renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, The US and Iran exchanged fire in the most serious test of their month-long ceasefire, with Iranian forces attacking three US Navy destroyers in the
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