JPMorgan's Latest Macro Outlook: Continue to Bet on Steepening US Treasury Yield Curve and High-Yield Currencies; Watch for Supply-Demand Divergence in the Oil Market - Moomoo
EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Rabobank | Bearish | 1.1000 |
ING | Bullish | 1.1300 |
MUFG | Neutral | 1.1200 |
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JPMorgan's Latest Macro Outlook: Continue to Bet on Steepening US Treasury Yield Curve and High-Yield Currencies; Watch for Supply-Demand Divergence in the Oil Market Moomoo
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4 itemsGlobal FX: Interrogating the optimistic baseline
The desk is currently evaluating a dollar bearish narrative amidst ongoing volatility in U.S. equities and geopolitical tensions. Per the full note from J.P. Morgan, the analysis suggests that the optimistic baseline for the dollar may be overly reliant on cyclical recovery assumptions. This view is supported by recent fluctuations in industrial commodities and the potential for further equity market instability, which could undermine the dollar's strength in the near term.
US Rates: Talk the talk, walk the walk
The desk asserts that the recent volatility in U.S. Treasuries, coupled with insights from the September FOMC meeting, suggests a tightening in yield expectations moving forward. Per the full note from J.P. Morgan, strategists anticipate that the Fed's cautious approach to rate hikes will underlie market sentiment, particularly impacting the correlation with currency pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD. As the current environment reflects a consensus target for EUR/USD at 1.1684 through December 2026, traders should closely monitor potential shifts in yield dynamics. Additionally, the absence of high-impact calendar events in the forthcoming month suggests stability in trading patterns for these pairs.
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