Kazakhstan makes a surprise rate cut, with next move to depend on the tenge
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COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES: Kazakhstan’s central bank cut the base rate by 100bp to 17.00%, surprising the market with an earlier and bolder move than we expected. Softer CPI, lower inflation expectations and supportive portfolio flows opened room for easing. Follow-up cu
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4 itemsKazakhstan makes a surprise rate cut, with next move to depend on the tenge
Uzbekistan policy rate on hold, but cuts starting to look possible soon
Lead — The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has maintained its policy rate at 14.00%, but recent statements suggest a shift towards potential easing measures in the near future. Per the full note from ING, while the central bank remains cautious given current inflationary pressures, it now explicitly articulates conditions under which it could initiate rate cuts, anticipating a possible reduction in July or September. This nuanced pivot is particularly significant against a backdrop of stable core inflation and a commitment to maintaining economic stability. Market participants should take note of these developments, especially given the lack of upcoming high-impact events in the region.