May meeting, RBA set for third straight hike as Hormuz closure drives inflation surge
At a Glance
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is set to deliver its third consecutive rate hike on May 5, raising the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%, driven by persistent inflation pressures exacerbated by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Per the full note source, a recent Reuters poll indicates that over a third of economists now expect rates to exceed 4.60% by year-end, a significant shift from previous forecasts. This adjustment reflects heightened concerns over core inflation, which is now forecast to average 3.8% this year, up from 3.1% prior to the geopolitical tensions. The RBA's cautious stance is informed by its recent experience with inflation rebounding swiftly after rate cuts in 2025, prompting a more aggressive approach to monetary policy.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk argues that the RBA's upcoming rate hike is a necessary response to escalating inflation driven by external shocks, particularly the energy crisis linked to the Strait of Hormuz closure. The consensus among economists, as reported in the Reuters poll, indicates a strong expectation for the RBA to raise rates to 4.35%, with a notable shift in terminal rate expectations beyond May.
Supporting this view, the latest CPI data shows annual inflation rising to 4.1% from 3.6%, with core inflation also edging higher. The RBA's historical context, particularly its experience in 2025, suggests a heightened sensitivity to inflation expectations, making it unlikely to signal any pause in rate hikes soon.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for the AUD/USD is 1.075, with a range from 1.04 to 1.12. Major banks have varying forecasts, with jpmorgan targeting 1.10 for March 2026, while bofa has a more conservative target of 1.04 for the same tenor.
This view aligns with the broader market sentiment, though it sits at the upper end of the expected range, reflecting a more aggressive outlook on RBA policy compared to some firms that anticipate a peak at 4.35%.
How other firms see it
Aligned firms such as jpmorgan and citi share a similar outlook on the RBA's trajectory, anticipating continued rate hikes. In contrast, bofa and anz are more cautious, projecting a peak rate of 4.35% or lower.
Watch the AUD/USD closely, as its movements will likely reflect shifts in expectations surrounding RBA policy and inflation dynamics. The trajectory of Australian inflation data will also be critical in shaping market sentiment.
What the calendar says
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From the original
Reuters poll: RBA to hike 25bps to 4.35% on May 5, say 30 of 33 economists. Over a third now see rates at 4.60%+ by year-end vs none in March. Strait of Hormuz closure keeps oil above $100; CPI at 4.1%. Summary: A Reuters poll of 33 economists conducted April 27 to 30 found 30 ex
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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is poised for a 25 basis point rate hike today, driven by inflationary pressures exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict in Iran. Per the full note from Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com, this marks the RBA's third consecutive hike, reflecting a split board that is nonetheless leaning towards tightening. The market is closely watching this decision, especially given the potential for a hawkish stance from Governor Bullock regardless of the outcome, indicating a strong commitment to combat inflation. The consensus among analysts suggests a significant focus on the implications of the Hormuz Strait situation on inflation dynamics, which could influence future monetary policy.
RBNZ set to hold at 2.25% but majority now see hikes coming by end-September
NAB calls June RBA hike to 4.60% as Middle East inflation compounds domestic pressures
The desk anticipates a rate hike from the RBA to 4.60% in June, driven by escalating inflation pressures both domestically and from the Middle East conflict. Per the full note [source], NAB's analysis highlights that the RBA cannot afford to let inflation run unchecked, especially following a significant rise in purchase costs reported in their March Business Survey. This view diverges sharply from peers like ING and CBA, who expect a pause after the recent hike to 4.35%. The upcoming RBA meeting on June 15-16 will be pivotal in determining market sentiment around these forecasts.
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