Reuters poll in near unanimous: RBA seen holding at 4.35% on June 16
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A near-unanimous expectation of a hold leaves limited scope for a market surprise on Tuesday, with attention shifting to the RBA's forward guidance and how it characterises Middle East-driven inflation risks. The split over the September outlook, with a notable minority still pri
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Per the full note [source], the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold the cash rate at 4.35% at Tuesday's meeting, with inflation surprising decisively to the downside—headline CPI at 3.9% YoY versus the RBA's 4.8% forecast—strengthening the case for an extended hold through year-end. The desk also flags China's July CPI and PPI as likely to moderate, alongside soft credit data, and India's July CPI expected to hold at 4.4% YoY. With no internal coverage on the AUD or INR, the focus remains on the RBA's forward guidance and the ensuing policy path divergence with the Fed.
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