More from Fed's Barkin: I'm nervous about the tails on both sides of the mandate
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Take encouragement from recent job growth, but not hard to imagine possible job losses due to AI Nervous about the tails on both sides of the mandate Employers outside of software are not yet reducing headcount due to AI Longer-term bond-market-based inflation expectations do not
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Ahead of the curve with Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi
The desk believes that recent labor market signals, especially the disappointing nonfarm payrolls number, will likely prompt a market reassessment towards rate cuts, a view supported by Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi's insights on AI-driven market dynamics [source]. The staggering underperformance in the payroll data, which came in at 22,000 against expectations of 75,000 to 80,000, alongside significant job losses in June, underscores a weakening labor foundation that could catalyze monetary policy shifts. Furthermore, the resilience of AI sectors, marked by strong earnings from companies like Broadcom, indicates a burgeoning economic segment that could insulate the broader market from recessionary pressures, yet may also distort traditional economic indicators. This duality underlines the importance of AI trends as we move forward.