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Oil: Hormuz risk repricing with fragile support – BNY - TMGM trading
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Oil: Hormuz risk repricing with fragile support – BNY TMGM trading
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4 itemsING THINK
The Commodities Feed: Oil maintains gains amid Persian Gulf escalation
Per the full note [source], ING argues that oil's rally above $95/bbl is fragile despite Persian Gulf escalation, as Strait of Hormuz flows remain uninterrupted and Iraq's exports hit a wartime high. The desk highlights that Saudi's unchanged OSP for Arab Light suggests the market is not as tight as thought, but refined product inventories in Europe and the US point to persistent middle-distillate tightness into winter. With no internal coverage on oil-linked currencies and no high-impact calendar events, the focus is on supply-side risks and distillate cracks. The consensus view likely sees Brent rangebound, with upside risk if Hormuz is disrupted.