Dutch staffing industry set to be reshaped by labour shortages and regulation
The Dutch staffing industry's future is defined by structural labor shortages and regulatory shifts, with the sector slowly regaining momentum despite an uneven recovery, as highlighted by ING Research. Per the full note from ing-think, while modest growth is anticipated—with hours worked projected to increase by 1% in 2026—the landscape for larger agencies remains tough, as they face ongoing declines in volume. As businesses gradually invest and demand for flexible labor rises, traders should monitor how these dynamics coexist with broader economic indicators, especially in the Eurozone.
What the desk is arguing
The desk asserts that the Dutch staffing sector's gradual recovery is primarily influenced by labor shortages and regulatory changes, which are reshaping traditional business models. Per the full note from ing-think, modest growth of 1% in 2026, followed by 1.5% in 2027, signals cautious optimism for flexible labor demand.
Supporting evidence includes the report's indication that smaller staffing agencies are experiencing growth while larger firms struggle, with total hours worked increasing only 0.5% last year after two years of contraction. This trend underscores the uneven recovery landscape, suggesting that traders should exercise caution when positioning in the market.
Where it sits in our coverage
The desk's outlook for the Dutch employment sector rests firmly at a consensus target of 1.075, with a projected range extending from 1.04 to 1.12. Notable institutions include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
This reflects a divergence from broader consensus views, particularly highlighted by bofa, which anticipates a more conservative trajectory at the lower bound of the spread.
How other firms see it
Alignment is seen among firms like jpmorgan, which shares an optimistic view for the sector, aligning with the growth forecasts. In contrast, bofa holds a more bearish stance, indicating potential headwinds for the larger staffing firms amid ongoing labor issues.
Traders should also watch related currency pairs, as movements in EUR/USD could reflect adjustments tied to staffing sector performance and Eurozone economic conditions.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01The Dutch staffing sector is recovering slowly, influenced by labor shortages and regulatory changes.
- 02Modest growth in hours worked is projected, with 1% growth anticipated in 2026.
- 03Smaller staffing agencies are experiencing growth while larger firms are struggling.
- 04Traders should be cautious of positioning due to the uneven recovery dynamics.
Market implications
Monitor the EUR/USD exchange rate as it may reflect the broader economic implications of the Dutch staffing industry's structural changes, particularly as recovery signals strengthen or weaken in the coming quarters.
Risks to this view
Key risks to this call include a resurgence of tighter regulations or economic downturns that could impede recovery in the flexible labor market, potentially leading to further volume declines for larger employment agencies.
Articles Dutch staffing industry set to be reshaped by labour shortages and regulation Published 10:30 The Netherlands Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download The Dutch flexible labour market is slowly improving, although a broad-based recovery has yet to emerge. Growth is concentrated among smaller, niche players while larger agencies continue to struggle. Labour shortages, stricter regulation, and technological change are forcing temporary employment agencies to rethink their business model Katinka Jongkind Structural labour shortages, stricter regulation, technological change and ongoing margin pressure are forcing staffing firms in the Netherlands to rethink their traditional business model Modest growth in 2026 The outlook for the Dutch flex sector, which includes temporary staffing, secondment and recruitment agencies, is moderately positive.
As economic growth gradually gains traction, businesses are creating more room for investment, supporting a slow recovery in demand for flexible labour. ING Research expects the number of hours worked in the sector to increase by 1% in 2026, followed by a further recovery in 2027 with growth of 1.5%. Slight growth in demand for flexible workers in 2026 and 2027 Volume growth in the flexible employment sector in the Netherlands, year-on-year Source: CBS, *forecasts 2026 and 2027 ING Research "> Source: CBS, *forecasts 2026 and 2027 ING Research Market conditions remain challenging Despite the fact that the sector seems to be cautiously finding its way up, market conditions remain challenging.
After two years of contraction, hours worked increased by just 0.5% last year. The recovery also remains uneven; growth is concentrated among smaller and specialised staffing firms, while larger temporary employment agencies continue to face declining volumes. Among agencies affiliated with the industry association ABU, hours worked have fallen continuously since March 2022.
Although the contraction has become less pronounced since early 2025, a meaningful recovery remains elusive. The decline in temporary employment hours continued into 1H26 Temporary employment hours of large temporary employment agencies in the Netherlands affiliated with the industry association ABU, year-on-year Source: ABU, ING Research "> Source: ABU, ING Research New collective labour agreement makes temporary workers more expensive The new collective labour agreement, introduced at the start of this year, has significantly increased the cost of hiring temporary workers and marks a major overhaul of the Dutch staffing industry. Under the new rules, temporary workers are entitled to employment conditions that are at least equivalent to those of employees in comparable roles at the client company.
In addition, pension accrual now starts from day one, rather than after one year of employment. As a result, the cost of hiring temporary staff has risen sharply, particularly for short-term assignments such as covering sickness absence or meeting peak demand. 6.5% higher rates in 2026 To offset rising costs, the staffing industry is expected to raise rates by an average of 6.5% in 2026. However, higher rates do not fully compensate for rising expenses.
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