Podcast: E-commerce and Corona with Adam Schatz, CEO of DIY and BHG Group
At a Glance
Per the full note source, Nordea's podcast with BHG Group CEO Adam Schatz explores the structural shift in e-commerce post-COVID, with implications for EUR/USD via Nordic consumer spending and investment flows. The desk sees online retail permanence supporting Nordic economic outperformance, which underpins a EUR/USD path to 1.22 (Nordea's Dec26 target) against consensus 1.20. Current spot at 1.1679 sits below the median, aligning with Nordea's bullish EUR view.
Key Takeaways
- 01Nordea's podcast signals structural e-commerce shift supports Nordic outperformance and EUR/USD upside.
- 02Dec26 consensus at 1.20; Nordea targets 1.22, aligning with bullish firms like deutschebank and morganstanley.
- 03Bearish risks from goldman (1.05) and bnpparibas (1.08) hinge on e-commerce reversal or US rate advantage.
- 04No near-term catalysts; gradual appreciation toward 1.22 expected.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk argues that pandemic-era changes in consumer behavior, particularly the surge in online shopping for DIY and home furnishing, will prove largely permanent, reinforcing structural demand and investment in the Nordics. Per the full note source, CEO Adam Schatz of BHG Group notes the explosion in e-commerce during COVID and expects lasting shifts, benefiting Nordic e-tailers and the region's economic resilience.
Supporting this, Nordea's recent research on EUR/USD highlights a 3% discount to the Dec26 consensus of 1.20, implying upside if the Nordic economy continues to outperform. The alternative read—that the e-commerce boom fades as brick-and-mortar recovers—would undermine this thesis, but the desk implicitly rejects that, citing ongoing investment in digital infrastructure.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD at Dec26 is 1.20 (range 1.05–1.25). Nordea's Dec26 target of 1.2200 sits above the median, aligning with a bullish EUR view. Specific firms with similar Dec26 targets include: - commerzbank: 1.2200 - morganstanley: 1.2300 - deutschebank: 1.2500
Nordea's 1.22 call is at the upper end of the consensus range, matching the bullish contingent. The desk's view aligns with commerzbank and deutschebank but diverges from more bearish firms like goldman (1.05) and bnpparibas (1.08).
How other firms see it
Aligned firms include commerzbank, morganstanley, and deutschebank, all targeting above 1.20 for Dec26. Contrary bearish firms are goldman (1.05), bnpparibas (1.08), and citi (1.12), expecting EUR weakness. The divergence centers on whether structural e-commerce gains offset headwinds from US rate differentials.
Related currency pairs to watch are EUR/GBP and USD/SEK, as Nordic e-commerce trends and central bank policies intersect with the broader European outlook.
What the calendar says
No high-impact events are scheduled in the next 30 days, allowing structural themes like e-commerce permanence to drive EUR/USD gradually toward the desk's target.
Market Implications
Watch for EUR/USD to grind toward 1.22 by Dec26 as structural e-commerce gains bolster Nordic investment flows. Key levels: 1.18 (current resistance) and 1.20 (consensus). A break above 1.20 would confirm the desk's call.
EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Bank of America | Bearish | 1.1200 |
ANZ | Bearish | 1.1400 |
UOB | Bullish | 1.1565 |
From the original
Podcast Podcast: E-commerce and Corona with Adam Schatz, CEO of DIY and BHG Group 08-12-2021 Johan Trocmé and Viktor Sonebäck from Nordea Thematics talk with Adam Schatz, CEO of DIY and Home Furnishing e-tailer BHG Group, about the explosion in online shopping triggered by the CO
Related speeches
4 itemsE-commerce after COVID: It ain’t over till it’s over
The desk interprets the latest insights on e-commerce dynamics post-COVID as indicative of a longer-term structural growth trajectory for online retail, potentially revitalized by demographic trends. Per the full note from Nordea, while there has been a natural easing of the explosive growth witnessed during the pandemic, technologic and demographic shifts suggest that the online share of retail sales will start to recover its growth trend. Current EUR/USD trading at 1.1679 reflects general market sentiments, yet, as multiple firms project gradual appreciation to the 1.20 range by the end of 2026, the outlook remains cautiously bullish.
Pandemic overdrive for e-commerce
The desk interprets the massive surge in e-commerce due to the COVID-19 pandemic as a lasting economic shift, as businesses adapt to new consumer behaviors. Per the full note from Nordea, data indicates that online retail has jumped from approximately 15% to nearly 25% of total retail sales in Nordics—a trend suggesting online sales could capture 30% of the market by 2024. As institutional traders consider the implications on currency pairs, the momentum towards digital retail could influence currencies tied to retail performance and economic resilience, particularly in the Nordics and broader European context.
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