Dutch road transport gains momentum despite truck charge
Lead — The desk supports the view that the Dutch road transport market is slowly recovering, albeit amid rising costs and structural challenges, potentially influencing market dynamics in the region. Per the full note from ING, volumes in road freight transport have seen a modest increase of 1.5% year-on-year as of August, indicating a cautious recovery. Despite ongoing cost pressures from wage increases and diesel price surges, which are projected to rise sharply due to geopolitical tensions, notably the Iran conflict, the sector's outlook remains cautiously optimistic. Current forecasts suggest growth of roughly 1% in 2026 and up to 1.5% in 2027, reflecting a broader European economic pickup as Germany stabilizes.
What the desk is arguing
The desk frames this as a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Dutch road transport sector, projecting gradual recovery despite significant cost pressures. As noted by ING, the sector's performance is improving incrementally, with freight volumes rising modestly, suggesting a positive trend in underlying business activity.
Cost pressures, including a 30% surge in diesel prices and ongoing wage increases, significantly hinder operators’ margins. The expected recovery in European industrial demand, particularly if Germany's economy stabilizes, may bolster transportation activity further, supporting the thesis of resilience in the market long-term.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our internal consensus reflects a target of 1.075 for Euro to US Dollar exchange rates, related to broader regional trade dynamics influenced by the transport sector's performance. Specific institutional forecasts include:
The desk's target aligns with sentiment expressed by jpmorgan, sitting towards the upper bound, indicating a belief in a stronger Euro contingent on transport recovery.
How other firms see it
The prevailing sentiment among aligned firms like jpmorgan indicates a bullish outlook for the Euro based on improving economic indicators, while bofa presents a more cautious stance, emphasizing potential downside risks from inflationary pressures.
Other associated factors are the fluctuation of the EUR/USD pair and potential implications from upcoming economic indicators reflecting recovery in both transport and manufacturing sectors across Europe.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Dutch road freight volumes grew by 1.5% year-on-year as of August.
- 02The sector faces significant cost pressures, notably a 30% rise in diesel prices.
- 03Forecasts suggest near-term growth at 1% in 2026 and up to 1.5% in 2027.
- 04Improving conditions in Germany may bolster transport activity and drive broader European growth.
Market implications
Watch for fluctuations in the EUR/USD near the 1.075 level as the ongoing recovery in the transport sector could influence Euro strength. Additionally, monitoring diesel price movements will be critical amidst geopolitical developments.
Risks to this view
Should diesel prices escalate significantly beyond expectations due to geopolitical tensions, or if a resurgence in inflation undermines consumer demand, the recovery narrative may falter, negatively impacting the transport sector and the Euro's performance.
Articles Dutch road transport gains momentum despite truck charge Published 12:14 Transport & Logistics The Netherlands Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Dutch road freight transport is cautiously recovering, with volumes set to grow despite ongoing market volatility. Yet operators face mounting cost pressure from higher wages, a 30% diesel price surge and the new truck charge. Congestion and infrastructure bottlenecks add to this.
Rate increases help to offset costs, but margins remain under pressure Rico Luman Following the 2023 market correction and two years of uneven growth, recovery remains patchy across the road transport sector Road freight transport: rising costs but a gradually improving market The modest recovery in road freight transport is set to continue in 2026. Through August, transport movements were up roughly 1.5% from a year earlier, offering an encouraging signal of underlying business activity. However, following the 2023 market correction and two years of uneven growth, the recovery remains patchy across the sector.
While 2026 began cautiously, momentum could build toward 2027 if Germany continues to emerge from its prolonged economic stagnation. The European Purchasing Managers' Index suggests improving conditions among industrial customers. This is also reflected in the relatively strong increase in European road freight contract rates.
On average, we expect road freight volumes to grow by around 1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. Market conditions are likely to remain volatile due to ongoing supply chain adjustments and geopolitical disruptions. Nevertheless, weak freight demand is becoming less of a headwind than in recent years.
Diesel prices surge in 2026 due to the Iran war Average diesel prices in the Netherlands (€ per litre per day, incl. VAT) Source: CBS, UC, ING Research "> Source: CBS, UC, ING Research Wage costs continue to rise, while diesel prices surge Labour costs remain the largest expense item for many road transport companies, accounting for roughly half of total operating costs. Collective labour agreement wages for drivers increased by 4% at the start of 2026.
At the same time, higher pay scales, workforce ageing and elevated sickness absence continue to push personnel costs upward. Fuel costs have also risen sharply. The conflict involving Iran pushed diesel prices around 30% higher than in 2025 levels through early September.
Europe is heavily dependent on diesel imports, while refining capacity remains tight. As long as these conditions persist, diesel prices are likely to stay elevated. Although fuel surcharges are typically passed on contractually, the speed of the increase has created a temporary lag that has affected profitability.
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