Poland’s governor turns more dovish, opening the door to rate cuts before end-2026
At a Glance
Poland's central bank governor Glapiński has turned more dovish, explicitly opening the door for a rate cut before end-2026, per the full note from ING Think. This marks a shift from June's cautious stance, with inflation now at target and medium-term projections favorable. Markets are pricing a cut by year-end, though the broader MPC remains divided. No high-impact domestic events are upcoming, but the zloty may face headwinds from global risk appetite and ECB policy divergence.
Key Takeaways
- 01NBP Governor Glapiński turned more dovish, not ruling out a rate cut motion after summer.
- 02Inflation is at the 2.5% target and within tolerance band for a year, below eurozone and US.
- 03Medium-term outlook remains benign, with only temporary inflation from fiscal reinstatements.
- 04MPC remains divided, but risks are tilted toward a cut before end-2026.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
Governor Glapiński's July press conference signaled a definitive dovish pivot, moving beyond June's cautious tone. He did not rule out proposing a 25bp cut after the summer, leveraging the fact that Polish CPI has been within the ±1% tolerance band for a full year and stands lower than in the eurozone or US.
The ING note highlights that medium-term inflation and growth outlooks remain benign, with only a temporary uptick expected from excise and VAT reinstatements. Glapiński explicitly identified energy prices, domestic activity, wage growth, and fiscal policy as the four key drivers—none of which, in his view, threaten sustained overshoots.
The alternative read—that the MPC's broader caution prevents near-term action—is implicitly rejected. The desk frames Glapiński's rhetoric as the leading indicator, with risks tilted toward a cut by year-end despite the council's current hesitation.
How other firms see it
No tracked firm consensus or per-firm forecasts are available in this desk's internal coverage for the relevant currency pair (USD/PLN or EUR/PLN). Therefore, this section is omitted per guidance.
Where it sits in our coverage
No internal coverage data exists for this jurisdiction's currency pairs. This section is omitted entirely.
Market Implications
Watch EUR/PLN for downside pressure if rate cut expectations solidify; a 25bp move could push the pair toward 4.30. Global risk appetite and ECB rate path remain key external drivers. Polish bond yields may decline further, steepening the curve.
From the original
Older quick take Quick take Published 15:50 Poland Poland’s governor turns more dovish, opening the door to rate cuts before end-2026 During the July press conference, the National Bank of Poland governor's rhetoric turned even more dovish than in June. Governor Glapiński did not
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