Preview - ECB seen holding at 2.25% as Middle East conflict clouds outlook, September hike still in play
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A hold this week would leave the door open for one more move in September, keeping the deposit rate on a gradual path toward the upper end of what TD views as neutral. Markets are likely to parse Lagarde's press conference closely for any shift in how policymakers characterise th
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4 itemsPreview - ECB seen holding at 2.25% as Middle East conflict clouds outlook, September hike still in play - investingLive
Preview - Deutsche Bank sees ECB pausing this week before a September rate rise
Rates Spark: ECB ready to hike, just not today
The ECB is poised to maintain its policy rate at 2.25% today, aligning with market expectations, but a September rate hike appears increasingly likely as inflationary pressures mount, particularly from rising oil prices. Per the full note, while there is a possibility for a front-loaded hike, the ECB typically telegraphs its moves well in advance, suggesting that deviating from this pattern is improbable at this juncture. This positions traders to be vigilant for hints of a hawkish pivot in subsequent communications from the Central Bank, especially as the market anticipates nearly three hikes over the coming year. The consensus median target for GBP/USD remains at 1.35, corroborating the ECB's measured approach against volatility in inflation expectations.