Preview: Japan core CPI seen hitting six month high, lifting bets on BoJ September hike
USD/JPY — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
UOB | Bearish | 159.60 |
Bank of America | Bullish | 149.00 |
Rabobank | Bullish | 145.00 |
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Market pricing for a Bank of Japan rate hike in September has climbed to ~80 percent, up sharply from around 65 percent in early August, after media reports pointed to government support for an early tightening move. Attention is shifting toward the pace of subsequent hikes rathe
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The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) hawkish tilt is gaining traction amidst rising inflation signals from Tokyo. As Tokyo's core CPI inflation rose to 1.9% in June, suggesting persistent price pressures, the odds of an immediate rate hike have increased, with some analysts now calling for an October move rather than December. Per the full note from ING, this shift highlights a powerful narrative where second-round effects from elevated oil prices may soon require a response from the BoJ.
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