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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 36 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 36 institutional desks. No promotion.
From the original
The decision was fully priced and unanimous, so the market reaction sits less in the outcome than in the tone. CBA reads the Board's strengthened conditional guidance, that it will hike further if upside risks materialise, as a deliberate signal to prevent markets from getting ah
The desk anticipates that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will maintain its cash rate at 4.35% for the remainder of 2026, with potential rate cuts beginning in 2027. This outlook is supported by Commonwealth Bank's recent analysis, which highlights inflation concerns and a downgraded GDP forecast. Per the full note [source], the RBA's decision to raise rates for the third consecutive time reflects a cautious approach to monitoring economic developments, particularly in light of inflationary pressures stemming from energy costs. The desk notes that the market's current pricing may not fully reflect the potential for an August rate hike if inflation data surprises to the upside.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised its cash rate to 4.35% in the May monetary policy meeting, a move anticipated by market participants. Per the full note [source], traders had priced in approximately 85% odds of a 25 basis point increase, with expectations for a total of around 61 basis points of hikes by year-end. This decision aligns with the broader trend of central banks tightening monetary policy in response to persistent inflationary pressures. As the RBA continues to navigate these economic challenges, market reactions will be closely monitored for further directional cues.
See how the Reserve Bank of Australia outlook moves the AUD bank consensus across 36 desks
View Reserve Bank of Australia outlook