RBA minutes due Tuesday to detail hike-versus-hold debate after August pause
AUD/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
UOB | Bearish | 0.7120 |
Bank of America | Bullish | 0.7000 |
Rabobank | Bullish | 0.7200 |
From the original
AUD/USD and rate-sensitive Australian bonds are likely to react most to any signal in the minutes about how close the Board came to hiking in August, given Governor Bullock has already confirmed both options were actively discussed. Hauser's comments last week , explicitly flaggi
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The prevailing sentiment among economists indicates a high likelihood of an RBA rate hike within the year, driven by persistent inflation concerns. Per the full note [source], six out of seven major banks now foresee at least one rate increase, narrowing the debate to the timing of such a move, particularly focusing on the upcoming September and November meetings. This shift translates to expectations of rising bond yields and upward pressure on the Australian dollar as markets react to inflation data and economic indicators leading up to these meetings. With CBA's adjustment to anticipate a hike in November, now at 4.60%, the market's response will be critical, particularly as data releases on employment and GDP come into play ahead of the RBA decisions, making every data point a substantial market signal.
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