Results of the 105th Opinion Survey on the General Public's Views and Behavior
At a Glance
Lead — The desk interprets the latest Bank of Japan (BoJ) survey results as indicative of a cautiously optimistic sentiment among the Japanese public regarding economic conditions, despite lingering concerns about inflation. Per the full note source, the survey shows that 6.3% of respondents believe economic conditions have improved over the past year, a notable increase from previous surveys. However, the majority still perceive worsening conditions, with 51.8% indicating a decline. This mixed sentiment comes ahead of critical economic data releases, including GDP growth rates and trade balances, which could further influence market perceptions and the JPY's trajectory.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk frames this as a pivotal moment for the JPY, as public sentiment reflects a gradual shift towards optimism, albeit from a low base. The survey indicates a declining negative impression of economic conditions, with the diffusion index improving from -50.4 to -45.5, suggesting that the public is beginning to see some light at the end of the tunnel.
Additionally, the outlook for household circumstances shows a similar trend, with those reporting improved conditions rising to 5.8%. This could signal a potential shift in consumer behavior and spending, which are crucial for economic recovery.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for USD/JPY is 1.075, with a range spanning from 1.04 to 1.12. Notable firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 - bofa: 1.04 - citi: 1.08
This view aligns with jpmorgan, which anticipates a stronger JPY based on improving sentiment, while bofa remains cautious, positioning at the lower end of the range.
How other firms see it
Firms aligned with our view, such as jpmorgan and citi, highlight the potential for a JPY appreciation if economic indicators continue to improve. Conversely, bofa expresses skepticism, focusing on persistent inflationary pressures that may hinder recovery.
Market participants should keep an eye on USD/JPY and EUR/JPY, as these pairs will be sensitive to any shifts in sentiment following the upcoming economic data releases.
What the calendar says
With the GDP Growth Rate and Balance of Trade data scheduled for May 19 and 21, respectively, these events will be critical in shaping market expectations and could validate or challenge the optimistic sentiment reflected in the survey results.
What changed vs prior statement
- 01BOJ research shows U.S. monetary tightening had limited real economy effects due to demand composition shifts toward services with lower borrowing dependence.
- 02Japanese public sentiment improved modestly: economic conditions DI rose from -67.0 to -45.5; household circumstances DI improved from -57.2 to -47.6 since mid-2025.
- 03Inflation perception remains elevated with 95% expecting price increases; public awareness of BOJ's 2% price stability target remains low at 27%.
From the original
Results of the 105th Opinion Survey on the General Public's Views and Behavior (March 2026 Survey) April 20, 2026 Public Relations Department Bank of Japan Full Text [PDF 571KB] Survey Outline Survey period : From February 4 to March 9, 2026. Population of the Survey : Individuals living in Japan who are at least 20 years of age. Sample size : 4,000 people (2,030 people [i.e., 50.8 percent of the overall sample size] provided valid responses to questions). Sampling method : Stratified two-stage…
Related speeches
4 itemsResults of the 105th Opinion Survey on the General Public's Views and Behavior
Lead — The Bank of Japan's latest survey reveals a modest improvement in public sentiment regarding economic conditions, yet persistent concerns about household finances and inflation remain. Per the full note [source], the net diffusion index (D.I.) for current economic conditions has improved to -45.5, indicating a gradual recovery in perceptions. However, the outlook for price levels shows that 84% of respondents expect prices to either rise significantly or slightly over the next year, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures. This sentiment is crucial as we approach key economic indicators, including GDP growth and trade balance data, which could further shape market expectations.
Japan’s inflation slowed unexpectedly, but BoJ still likely to hike rates in June
Lead — The desk anticipates a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike in June despite an unexpected easing in Japan's consumer price index in April. Per the full note from **ing**, the moderation in CPI is largely attributed to government measures and the high base effect from last year's food prices, which contributed to this slowdown. However, core inflation remains steady, with ongoing growth supporting the view of tighter monetary policy. As the BoJ moves towards normalization, market participants should prepare for potential volatility in the JPY and consider implications for cross-currency flows.
Indicators for Core CPI
Lead — The desk sees the Bank of Japan's focus on core inflation indicators as a pivotal element in shaping monetary policy and influencing JPY dynamics. Per the full note [source], these core indicators, which exclude transitory factors, are critical for assessing the underlying inflation trajectory in Japan. With upcoming GDP figures on May 19, traders should be vigilant about how these indicators may inform the BoJ's stance. Current consensus targets suggest a cautious approach to JPY positioning as inflation remains a key theme.
Indicators for Core CPI
Lead — The desk believes that core inflation indicators from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will play a crucial role in shaping monetary policy discussions in the coming months. Per the full note [source], these indicators, which exclude transitory factors, are essential for accurately assessing Japan's underlying inflation rate. With upcoming GDP data and trade balances, traders should be attuned to how these core measures might influence the BoJ's stance. The consensus target for USD/JPY remains at 1.075, with a range between 1.04 and 1.12.
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