Results of the 105th Opinion Survey on the General Public's Views and Behavior
At a Glance
Lead — The Bank of Japan's latest survey reveals a modest improvement in public sentiment regarding economic conditions, yet persistent concerns about household finances and inflation remain. Per the full note source, the net diffusion index (D.I.) for current economic conditions has improved to -45.5, indicating a gradual recovery in perceptions. However, the outlook for price levels shows that 84% of respondents expect prices to either rise significantly or slightly over the next year, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures. This sentiment is crucial as we approach key economic indicators, including GDP growth and trade balance data, which could further shape market expectations.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk interprets the recent Bank of Japan survey as a signal of cautious optimism among the public, with a notable increase in the perception of current economic conditions. The D.I. for current conditions has improved from -50.4 in December 2025 to -45.5 in March 2026, suggesting that more individuals feel conditions are stabilizing compared to previous months.
Despite this improvement, concerns about household finances persist, with 53.4% of respondents indicating they feel worse off compared to a year ago. This dichotomy highlights the challenges the BOJ faces in achieving its inflation targets while maintaining public confidence.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for USD/JPY is 1.075, with a range of 1.04 to 1.12. Notable firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26) - citi: 1.12 (Mar26)
The desk's view aligns closely with jpmorgan, sitting at the upper end of the consensus range, indicating a belief in further JPY weakness as inflation concerns mount.
How other firms see it
Firms like citi and jpmorgan share a similar outlook, expecting the JPY to weaken against the USD due to ongoing inflationary pressures. Conversely, bofa holds a contrary stance, predicting a stronger JPY based on anticipated economic stabilization.
The trajectory of USD/JPY is closely tied to upcoming GDP growth rates and trade balance figures, which will provide further clarity on the economic landscape and potential BOJ policy adjustments.
What the calendar says
With the GDP Growth Rate and Balance of Trade data scheduled for May 19, these releases will be pivotal in shaping market sentiment and expectations for the JPY. Traders should be prepared for potential volatility in USD/JPY as these indicators are released.
What changed vs prior statement
- 01BOJ research finds U.S. monetary tightening had limited real economy effects due to demand composition shifts toward services with lower borrowing dependence.
- 02Japanese public sentiment improving: economic conditions D.I. rose to -45.5 (March 2026) from -67.0 (June 2025); household circumstances D.I. improved to -47.6.
- 03Price inflation perception remains elevated at 95% expecting increases, though expectations for significant increases slightly declined to 29.2% year-ahead.
From the original
Results of the 105th Opinion Survey on the General Public's Views and Behavior (March 2026 Survey) April 20, 2026 Public Relations Department Bank of Japan Full Text [PDF 571KB] Survey Outline Survey period : From February 4 to March 9, 2026. Population of the Survey : Individuals living in Japan who are at least 20 years of age. Sample size : 4,000 people (2,030 people [i.e., 50.8 percent of the overall sample size] provided valid responses to questions). Sampling method : Stratified two-stage…
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4 itemsResults of the 105th Opinion Survey on the General Public's Views and Behavior
Lead — The desk interprets the latest Bank of Japan (BoJ) survey results as indicative of a cautiously optimistic sentiment among the Japanese public regarding economic conditions, despite lingering concerns about inflation. Per the full note [source], the survey shows that 6.3% of respondents believe economic conditions have improved over the past year, a notable increase from previous surveys. However, the majority still perceive worsening conditions, with 51.8% indicating a decline. This mixed sentiment comes ahead of critical economic data releases, including GDP growth rates and trade balances, which could further influence market perceptions and the JPY's trajectory.
Japan’s inflation slowed unexpectedly, but BoJ still likely to hike rates in June
Lead — The desk anticipates a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike in June despite an unexpected easing in Japan's consumer price index in April. Per the full note from **ing**, the moderation in CPI is largely attributed to government measures and the high base effect from last year's food prices, which contributed to this slowdown. However, core inflation remains steady, with ongoing growth supporting the view of tighter monetary policy. As the BoJ moves towards normalization, market participants should prepare for potential volatility in the JPY and consider implications for cross-currency flows.