Romanian Leu: Rating relief but NBR stays cautious – ING - tmgm.com
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Romanian Leu: Rating relief but NBR stays cautious – ING tmgm.com
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Romanian inflation is no cause for celebration yet
Romanian CPI disinflated to 6.2% in August, but per the full note from ING the print reverses July's upside surprise on little more than seasonal food and gas relief while fuel prices jumped more than 6.0% month-on-month and services inflation held flat. The desk is explicit that this is no cause for celebration, keeping its year-end CPI forecast of 6.5% against a 6.2% spot and flagging that volatile energy markets continue to heighten the risk. Wage data supports the caution rather than resolving it: average net wage growth picked up to 5.5% in July from 3.5% in June, likely an indirect minimum-wage effect, even as 2026 shapes as the weakest wage-growth year since 2010 on public-sector freezes and private-sector weakness. The tension is clear — headline disinflation against sticky services and insecure energy relief — and that combination argues for caution on Romania duration and the leu rather than chasing the downside on the print. With no high-impact events on our calendar in the next 30 days for this jurisdiction, the next directional catalyst is the next monthly CPI and wage release rather than a scheduled policy meeting.
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