FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 36 institutional desks. No promotion.
See how the Federal Reserve outlook moves the USD bank consensus across 36 desks
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The end of Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chair brings a shift in US monetary policy, with a divided committee and new leadership on the horizon. We break down what the Fed transition means for interest rates, the outlook for further cuts, and how incoming chair Warsh’s views on AI,
Lead — The desk is weighing potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy as Kevin Warsh takes the helm, anticipating a more hawkish tone tempered by hints of dovishness. This nuanced approach could underpin a significant shift in market dynamics, particularly regarding the Fed's balance sheet management and interest rate trajectory. Per the full note [source], though no immediate changes to the policy rate are expected, markets will be keenly focused on Warsh's commentary, particularly his thoughts on AI-driven productivity growth as it relates to future rate decisions. As the consensus for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY remain tightly clustered, the Fed's course may serve as a critical market catalyst amidst a calendar devoid of impactful economic events.