Sticky core inflation pushes RBA towards its highest cash rate since 2011
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With 33 of 34 economists expecting a hike, Tuesday's move is close to fully priced. The Australian dollar is therefore more likely to react to the RBA's statement and Governor Bullock's press conference than to the decision itself. If the bank signals it is open to hiking again,
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4 itemsBank consensus builds for near term RBA hike as economists cite sticky inflation
The prevailing sentiment among economists indicates a high likelihood of an RBA rate hike within the year, driven by persistent inflation concerns. Per the full note [source], six out of seven major banks now foresee at least one rate increase, narrowing the debate to the timing of such a move, particularly focusing on the upcoming September and November meetings. This shift translates to expectations of rising bond yields and upward pressure on the Australian dollar as markets react to inflation data and economic indicators leading up to these meetings. With CBA's adjustment to anticipate a hike in November, now at 4.60%, the market's response will be critical, particularly as data releases on employment and GDP come into play ahead of the RBA decisions, making every data point a substantial market signal.
Heads up RBA preview: Analysts see cash rate on hold at 4.35% Tuesday
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