Heads up RBA preview: Analysts see cash rate on hold at 4.35% Tuesday
AUD/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
BNP Paribas | Bearish | 0.6800 |
UBS | Bullish | 0.7300 |
UOB | Bearish | 0.7120 |
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A unanimous hold call from economists leaves little room for surprise around Tuesday's decision, meaning the statement's language on the inflation and hiking bias is likely to matter more for the Australian dollar than the rate itself. Any softening in the RBA's tone would weigh
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Preview: RBA to stay in pause and observe mode, TD Securities says ahead of today's decision
The desk anticipates the RBA will maintain its cash rate at 4.35%, aligning with market expectations and suggesting limited volatility in the AUD and rates markets. According to TD Securities, the crucial insights will arise from the RBA's accompanying Statement on Monetary Policy, which may reflect a cautious outlook despite recent inflation data suggesting room for a pause. Market participants should note the potential for a modest shift in forecast language, with oil prices continuing to pose an upside risk to inflation projections. Per the full note [source], the subdued probability of a rate hike today is supported by OIS pricing that indicates negligible expectations from traders for any changes in the policy rate.
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