TD joins big four banks flagging Australian inflation relief, all roads lead to RBA hold

AUD faces headwinds above 0.72 as RBA signals pause, TD warns

The Australian dollar (AUD) is likely to face significant resistance above 0.72 against the US dollar, primarily due to a dovish shift in the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) messaging and external economic pressures. Per the full note from TD Securities, the RBA's recent 25 basis point hike to 4.35% was accompanied by a cautious outlook, suggesting a pause in future rate increases unless inflation data exceeds expectations. This dovish pivot, combined with geopolitical risks from the Middle East, casts doubt on the AUD's ability to sustain gains above 0.72, especially given the strong performance of the US dollar supported by hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) signals.

Reserve Bank of Australia delivers decisive hike, signals balanced path ahead

The Reserve Bank of Australia's recent decision to raise the cash rate to 4.35% marks a pivotal moment in its monetary policy, signaling a cautious yet decisive approach to managing inflation and growth. Per the full note from ing-think, the RBA's move was accompanied by a notable downgrade to the growth outlook, suggesting that the central bank is balancing the need to combat inflation with concerns about economic momentum. With the cash rate now near the upper end of the neutral range, the desk anticipates a hold on rates in the near term unless inflation data surprises significantly to the upside. This nuanced stance reflects a broader trend among central banks grappling with similar challenges globally, particularly as inflation remains persistent in many economies.

Reserve Bank of Australia: Slowing demand supports steady rates – TD Securities - FXStreet

CBA sees RBA on hold for rest of 2026 after third consecutive hike to 4.35%

The desk anticipates that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will maintain its cash rate at 4.35% for the remainder of 2026, with potential rate cuts beginning in 2027. This outlook is supported by Commonwealth Bank's recent analysis, which highlights inflation concerns and a downgraded GDP forecast. Per the full note [source], the RBA's decision to raise rates for the third consecutive time reflects a cautious approach to monitoring economic developments, particularly in light of inflationary pressures stemming from energy costs. The desk notes that the market's current pricing may not fully reflect the potential for an August rate hike if inflation data surprises to the upside.