The World at Mid-Year: The 2026 Geopolitical Playbook
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Our Mid-year geopolitical outlook looks at major themes for the second half of 2026 and beyond. It decodes Trump 2.0, China-US friction, Middle East shifts, and Europe's pivotal path, revealing risks, growth, and critical events that will impact markets.
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The desk interprets the evolving geopolitical landscape and its implications for FX markets, emphasizing that 2022 is shaping up to be defined by a new world order influenced by the Ukraine-Russia conflict and China's ongoing zero-COVID policies. Per the full note from Standard Chartered, this environment is characterized by rising volatility, interest rates, and prices, which are likely to impact currency valuations significantly. With the consensus target for EUR/USD at 1.075, traders should be vigilant about how these macroeconomic shifts play out in the coming months.