THINK Ahead: Deal done, hikes axed? Not exactly

THINK Ahead: Deal done, hikes axed? Not exactly

THINK Ahead: Deal done, hikes axed? Not exactly

THINK Ahead: Are rate hikes pointless?

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Markets’ cynicism premium'

The key contention from our desk is that market reactions to geopolitical developments—specifically regarding Iran—are characterized by heightened skepticism, as ascribed in the UBS report. This reflects a broader trend of caution among investors, especially given the historical unreliability of Axios reports regarding impending deals, which have been noted for their tendency to serve as contrary indicators. Per the full note [source], the failure of equities to respond positively to President Trump's remarks illustrates this sentiment of caution despite improved macro data from Japan, where GDP grew by 0.6% year-on-year versus expectations. Subsequently, market players should remain alert to this growing cynicism that may restrict significant upward movements in risk assets, especially in the context of fluctuating oil prices.