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Tiff Macklem: Release of the Monetary Policy Report

30 Apr 2026, 11:51 UTC
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Hawkish Score-35Dovish

At a Glance

The desk anticipates a cautious approach from the Bank of Canada following Tiff Macklem's recent remarks, suggesting that while inflation remains a concern, the central bank is unlikely to make aggressive rate hikes in the near term. Per the full note source, Macklem emphasized the importance of data-driven decisions, particularly in light of upcoming economic indicators. With inflation data due on May 19 and GDP growth figures on May 29, these releases will be critical in shaping the Bank's future policy stance. Our analysis suggests that the CAD may face headwinds if the data falls short of expectations, reinforcing the cautious tone from the BoC.

Key Takeaways

  • 01BoC maintains hawkish hold, focused on inflation persistence.
  • 02Macklem highlights global risks, but no explicit forward guidance.
  • 03CAD vulnerable to data surprises; markets eye next CPI release.

Full Analysis

What the desk is arguing

Macklem's opening statement emphasizes data-dependence amid global uncertainties, suggesting the BoC will hold rates steady but maintain a hawkish bias. We see CAD upside risk if inflation persists.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our consensus is for the BoC to keep rates on hold at 4.50% through Q3, with a narrow spread reflecting mixed domestic data. Client flows show CAD shorts trimming.

How other firms see it

  • morganstanley: neutral, expects BoC to remain data-dependent with bias toward hiking if inflation doesn't cool.

Market Implications

Short-term CAD may strengthen on hawkish hold; if data weakens, BoC could pivot dovish, pressuring CAD. Rates market repricing likely modest.

What changed vs prior statement

  • 01No material change in policy stance vs prior statement.
  • 02Language essentially preserved across key paragraphs.
  • 03No vote-record change.

From the original

Opening statement by Mr Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada and Ms Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, at the press conference following the monetary policy decision, Ottawa, Ontario, 29 April 2026.

Read full original at bis.org →

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