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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 35 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 35 institutional desks. No promotion.
Overnight rate
2.25%
as of 2026-07-28
Next meeting
Sep 17
T-42d
Bias
NEUTRAL
The Bank of Canada sets the target for the overnight rate to keep inflation low, stable, and predictable under an agreed inflation-control target. The Governing Council announces rate decisions on a fixed schedule of eight dates per year.
Policy decisions are announced on the dates above. Source: official central bank schedules.
Overnight rate
2.25%
As of 2026-07-28
CAD 2026 consensus
1.35
median of 25 banks
CAD net longs (CFTC)
-102,495
latest as of
Next macro event
Part Time Employment Chg (Jul)
USD/CAD trades at 1.4073, roughly 4.24% above the 25-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, with a 0.11 dispersion range…
Read research →USD/CAD trades 4.05% above the 25-firm median target of 1.35, with a 0.11 dispersion range signalling meaningful…
Read research →| Date | Event | Country | Impact | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Part Time Employment Chg (Jul) | CA | Med | 4 K | 17.5 K | |
| Full Time Employment Chg (Jul) | CA | Med | 21 K | 0.6 K | |
| Unemployment Rate (Jul) | CA | High | 6.5% | 6.5% | |
| Employment Change (Jul) | CA | Med | 15 K | 18.2 K | |
| Participation Rate (Jul) | CA | Med | 65.1% | 65% | |
| Ivey PMI (Jul) | CA | High | 55.5 | 56.2 | |
| Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jul) | CA | Med | 2% | 2.1% | |
| Inflation Rate MoM (Jul) | CA | Med | 0.1% | -0.4% |
vs prior statement from
5 most-recent items prefer LLM synthesis where available
Lead — RBC's revised growth projections for Canada and the U.S. signal a notable shift. The Canadian economy's annualized GDP estimate for Q2 has been increased to 2.2%, driven by robust household…
Per the full note [source], RBC Economics expects the Bank of Canada to hold rates steady on June 4, 2025, following a close call after April's pause. The decision is supported by upside inflation…
The desk interprets recent U.S. payroll data as a testament to American economic resilience amid global uncertainties. The latest report reflects a solid addition of 250,000 jobs, which underscores…
The desk interprets recent remarks by Fundi Tshazibana on AI's regulatory landscape as pivotal for understanding the evolving dynamics of financial markets, especially as it relates to currency…
The desk believes that the Greek economy is at a critical juncture, showcasing both significant progress and enduring challenges that may impact Eurozone stability. Per the full note by Christina…
100 statements scored, Dec 2025 → May 2026
Most hawkish: May 11, 2026 (Ida Wolden Bache: Policy rate raised to 4.25 percent, score +75)
Most dovish: Apr 30, 2026 (Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: ECB press conference -…, score -35)
Non-commercial net longs over the past 8 weeks. Latest report: for BoC
Latest net
-102,495
CAD non-commercial contracts
WoW change
-4,118
8-week trend
oldest → newest
Reports referencing BoC across covered research desks
USD/CAD trades 4.35% above the 24-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, with a 0.11 dispersion range signalling meaningful…
The next Bank of Canada (BoC) policy decision is scheduled for Sep 17. Because Bank of Canada sets monetary policy for the CAD, its rate decisions and forward guidance are among the most important scheduled catalysts for CAD exchange rates, and sell-side FX desks reposition their CAD forecasts around each meeting. FX Bank Forecast tracks how the major investment banks' CAD targets shift before and after BoC decisions, so you can see whether the consensus is moving with the policy path or diverging from it. Watching the cross-bank reaction to each meeting is often a more durable signal than any single house call.
Bank of Canada's current policy lean reads as neutral, based on its most recent decisions and guidance. A more hawkish stance — biased toward higher-for-longer rates — tends to be supportive of the CAD, while a dovish, easing-biased stance tends to weigh on it, though the market reaction always depends on what was already priced in. What matters for CAD forecasting is less the stance in isolation than how it compares with what investment banks expected and how it shifts the projected rate path. FX Bank Forecast aggregates how 35 major banks read the BoC path and translates it into where the CAD consensus and its dispersion sit.
Monetary-policy expectations are one of the dominant drivers of currency moves, so Bank of Canada's decisions — and, just as importantly, how they compare with other central banks — feed directly into where strategists set their CAD targets. Relative policy paths (the BoC versus the Fed and other majors), the pace of cuts or hikes, and the tone of guidance are the channels through which BoC actions transmit into the CAD. FX Bank Forecast compares the published CAD forecasts of 35 major investment banks side by side and shows how that consensus — and the spread of views around it — shifts as the BoC outlook evolves.