Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - A ‘run it hot’ verdict
From the original
After spending the past few weeks fixated on AI disruption risk and macroeconomic data, investors were reminded Friday morning that tariffs are still a factor when the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs. Perhaps lost in that story was the release of Q4 GDP data. We discu
Related speeches
4 itemsTop of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - A ‘run it hot’ verdict
Per the full note [source], the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs, but the Trump administration retaliated with a 10–15% tariff under Section 122, escalating trade uncertainty. Q4 GDP data was overshadowed by this development. The desk argues this reaffirms a 'run it hot' strategy favoring risk assets despite tariff noise, as the administration's swift response signals policy continuity rather than retreat. The lack of specific currency targets in the source limits cross-firm comparison, but the macro backdrop remains pro-USD on safe-haven flows.
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Latest on tariffs & the economy
The desk believes that the renewed focus on tariffs by the U.S. administration could introduce volatility in foreign exchange markets, particularly for commodities and currencies linked to them. Per the full note [source], tariffs on steel and aluminum, while not unprecedented, signal potential shifts in broader trade policy that financial markets are keenly monitoring. This sentiment is underscored by traders digesting recent employment data, with the January jobs report indicating a stable labor market. All eyes are also on upcoming inflation figures, which could further influence market strategies and positions.
More from UBS ON AIR
5 items- UBS ON AIR
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'How to survive an affordability crisis'
- UBS ON AIR
Top of the Morning: CEO Macro Briefing Book - Insights on AI
- UBS ON AIR
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'D-day or Light Brigade?'
- UBS ON AIR
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Canada, Iran, and US affordability'