UBS Forecast: Australian Dollar Over-Sold, AUD/USD March 2026 Forecast 0.70 - Exchange Rates Org UK
At a Glance
The desk posits that the Australian dollar is currently undervalued, echoing UBS's view of an oversold AUD with a forecast of 0.70 for AUD/USD by March 2026. The consensus median across firms aligns closely, indicating a potential recovery supported by a global shift toward risk appetite and commodity demand. Per the full note source, recent economic indicators such as improving employment rates in Australia bolster this outlook; the current spot sits at 0.6400. With no high-impact events looming in the next month, this forecast appears insulated from short-term volatility.
Key Takeaways
- 01UBS sees the AUD as oversold, targeting 0.70 by March 2026.
- 02Current consensus estimates range from 0.6600 to 0.7300 for March 2026.
- 03Bullish signals from employment data may bolster the AUD further.
- 04No immediate calendar events impact AUD positioning.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk frames the current positioning of the Australian dollar as undervalued based on UBS’s forecast that projects AUD/USD to reach 0.70 by March 2026. As cited, the Australian economy demonstrates resilience, with indicators suggesting a rebound in domestic consumption may support the AUD in the near term.
Supporting this outlook is the consensus across other banks, reflecting a range of targets with a median forecast of 0.6700 for March 2026, suggesting a uniform belief in a potential upward adjustment in the AUD/USD.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for March 2026 is set at 0.6700, with a range between 0.6600 and 0.7300. Key firms projecting similar targets include: - goldman: 0.6600 - morganstanley: 0.6700 - jpmorgan: 0.6700
This view aligns closely with ubs, which also targets 0.7000, suggesting that our perspective is at the higher end of the existing forecast spectrum.
How other firms see it
Several firms echo this bullish stance on the AUD, notably bankofamerica, deutschebank, and hsbc, which predict modest recoveries in their projections for March 2026. In contrast, firms like mizuho and barclays present a more muted outlook, reflecting concerns over global economic headwinds.
A related focus should be on commodity prices, as movements in key exports like iron ore could significantly influence the AUD’s trajectory. Additionally, monitoring the RBA's policy responses will be vital for gauging changes in market sentiment regarding AUD/USD dynamics.
Market Implications
Traders should watch for potential crossovers around the 0.6600 level as confirmation of a bullish reversal. Sustained positive economic data releases could prompt further upward revisions in forecasts.
AUD/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2027 |
|---|---|---|
Goldman Sachs | Bullish | 0.7000 |
UOB | Bearish | 0.6835 |
Citi | Bearish | 0.6700 |
From the original
UBS Forecast: Australian Dollar Over-Sold, AUD/USD March 2026 Forecast 0.70 Exchange Rates Org UK
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