UBS Australian Dollar To US Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Forecasts Raised To 0.68 By End 2025 - Exchange Rates Org UK

What the desk is arguing

UBS sees the Australian dollar grinding higher toward 0.68 by end-2025, a revision from an earlier, likely more cautious forecast. The bank is leaning into expectations of a narrower Fed-RBA rate differential and a cyclical uplift in commodity demand, particularly from China's policy stimulus, which should support AUD.

Supporting this view, the RBA's relatively hawkish stance compared to the Fed—markets price only shallow rate cuts in Australia while the US easing cycle is more advanced—provides a yield advantage. Additionally, the AUD's undervaluation on a PPP basis offers a structural buffer against sharp downside.

The desk is implicitly rejecting the notion that a global growth slowdown or renewed USD strength from trade tensions will overwhelm these supportive factors. UBS appears to view the current spot level of 0.64 as a solid entry point for longs.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our median consensus targets for AUD/USD are 0.6650 by Mar26 and 0.7000 by Dec26, with UBS's 0.68 end-2025 target sitting near the low end of the near-term range. The overall firm spread is wide—from 0.64 (not shown but implied by some) to 0.73—indicating clear divergence on AUD's trajectory. UBS's call is a touch below the Mar26 median but broadly aligned with the gradual appreciation consensus.

Comparing specific firm targets for Dec26: - Goldman: 0.7000 - JPMorgan: 0.6800 - ING: 0.7300

UBS's 0.68 is closer to JPMorgan's cautious 0.68 than to Goldman's or ING's more bullish calls, suggesting UBS sees a more modest upside.

How other firms see it

ING is the most bullish, targeting 0.73 by Dec26, well above UBS's 0.68. They likely place greater weight on a sharp USD downturn and robust commodity price rally. Goldman and Morgan Stanley are moderately bullish at 0.70 and 0.71 respectively.

On the contrary side, Barclays is the most bearish with a Dec26 target of 0.69, only marginally above UBS's end-2025 call. Others like BOFA and MUFG are in the middle at 0.70. The consensus shows a bullish skew, but UBS's target is conservative relative to the median.