UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Disinflation data'
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Disinflation data continues today. The US July personal consumer expenditure deflator is expected to show fairly stable inflation rates. It is worth remembering that if inflation falls because of owners’ equivalent rent, this does not change the spending power of any US household
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The commentary from UBS highlights that the July US consumer price inflation data came in line with expectations, lending credence to the current economic consensus of holding US rates steady through the year. Per the full note [source], this aligns with economists' views that there is little urgency for the Federal Reserve to adjust interest rates in the near term, especially with the next inflation report poised to potentially be influenced by rising oil prices. Market participants should be mindful that while consumer prices remain relatively stable, the political landscape surrounding oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions may introduce volatility. Thus, the current backdrop supports a cautious stance on USD strength, given the backdrop of stagnation in rate changes amid global election dynamics as well.
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