UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Holding back?'
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China’s fiscal stimulus plans underwhelmed financial markets. There is a sense that consumer weakness has not been addressed directly (the weekend’s consumer price inflation data suggested consumer weakness). There might be a reluctance to admit that current policies are not work
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The desk interprets recent Chinese economic data as indicative of ongoing domestic difficulties, particularly in retail and investment sectors, while external demand supports industrial production. Per the full note from UBS, retail sales underperformed and domestic investment fell more than expected, suggesting a lack of confidence among consumers. With the US 10-year Treasury yield now above 5%, this round number may have political ramifications, although economically it lacks significance. Overall, developments in China might impact market sentiment toward the USD/CNY pair, which is currently under scrutiny as traders assess geopolitical influences and economic fundamentals.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Missing demand'
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