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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 36 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 36 institutional desks. No promotion.
From the original
The Federal Reserve minutes make it clear that rate cuts are coming (some wanted to cut in July). The Fed is late, and is now going to have to scramble after the decline in inflation, in an undignified manner. Policy operates with a lag, so the economic benefit of these cuts will
The market is at a crossroads as it weighs the Federal Reserve's recent decision to keep interest rates unchanged against ongoing policy uncertainty stemming from the Trump administration. Per the full note from UBS, a March rate cut appeared uncertain due to concerns over the potential inflationary impact of the administration's policies, yet the Fed's characterization of policy as restrictive hints that rate cuts remain feasible in the future. With this backdrop, traders should remain alert to the Fed's signaling, especially amid a backdrop of income security for consumers, which has bolstered spending across developed economies. It is crucial to consider how external pressures, such as criticisms from President Trump, could shape the Fed's decisions going forward.
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