UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Prices, perceptions, and policy'
From the original
The New York Federal Reserve survey of inflation expectations is of little economic relevance, but may be of future political interest. Inflation expectations are skewed towards prices of high frequency purchases (food and fuel). Trade tariffs, as a sales tax, increase prices pai
Related speeches
4 itemsUBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The politics of price expectations'
The desk views the Michigan consumer sentiment data as politically powerful despite its weak economic signal, with a focus on the emotional connection consumers have to frequent purchases like food and fuel. Per the full note from UBS, Paul Donovan suggests that rather than raw inflation figures, voters are likely to retain a 'fair price' threshold that significantly affects sentiment. This underscores the importance of tracking gasoline prices closely, particularly relative to the recalled fair price of around $2.50, as fluctuations here can spell political implications for administration approval ratings and broader market sentiment.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The future of inflation and interest rates'
More from UBS ON AIR
5 items- UBS ON AIR
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'How to survive an affordability crisis'
- UBS ON AIR
Top of the Morning: CEO Macro Briefing Book - Insights on AI
- UBS ON AIR
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'D-day or Light Brigade?'
- UBS ON AIR
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Canada, Iran, and US affordability'