FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 30 institutional desks. No promotion.
Live cross-firm bank consensus across 30 desks — FX, oil & gold
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Yesterday’s US consumer price inflation data showed, as expected, faint hints at the effects of trade taxes and clearer examples of weak demand. The declining number of people wishing to visit the US helped weaken air fares. Goods where inventory is held for longer (like autos) a
UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan argues that US January CPI will be largely unaffected by Trump's trade taxes, as tariff effects typically lag by months. The desk emphasizes that year-on-year rates are expected to remain static, and food prices—especially eggs—are a politically sensitive driver of inflation perceptions, not core policy. Consensus aligns with a near-term neutral view on USD crosses, though the egg/avocado angle may constrain tariff aggressiveness on Canada and Mexico.