UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The US and China – different consumers'
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The US has more people employed, working longer hours, for more pay. Last Friday’s employment report essentially summarized a soft economic landing. There was evidence of slower hiring (without firing) in the employment details, also consistent with a soft landing. While the Fede
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4 itemsUBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The US and China – different consumers'
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The great US consumer'
UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan argues the US labor market remains the critical driver of the economy, with consumers spending more and saving less to afford tariffs per the full note [source]. He sees the labor market as strong enough to sustain confidence but not strong enough to create wage pressures, dismissing wage-price spirals as unrealistic. Oil price rises are a near-term inflation perception risk, but the broader narrative supports steady consumer spending, which benefits risk assets.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Why work matters'
The desk notes a significant shift in the narrative surrounding the US labor market, as highlighted in UBS's recent report. Per the full note, expectations for today's US employment report suggest an unchanged unemployment rate, with non-farm payroll growth anticipated below 100,000. The desk emphasizes the importance of this data in relation to consumer spending, particularly under prevailing high oil prices and the erosion of the savings rate during previous tariff periods. This situation indicates a delicate balance that could affect the broader economic outlook and potentially market sentiment.