UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Thrilling times'
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It is US employment report Friday, the monthly celebration of dubious quality data that always thrills markets. Looking at the broad picture of the US labor market, the position is what it has been all year. Firms are slower to hire, but not keen to fire. This gives job security,
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The desk notes a significant shift in the narrative surrounding the US labor market, as highlighted in UBS's recent report. Per the full note, expectations for today's US employment report suggest an unchanged unemployment rate, with non-farm payroll growth anticipated below 100,000. The desk emphasizes the importance of this data in relation to consumer spending, particularly under prevailing high oil prices and the erosion of the savings rate during previous tariff periods. This situation indicates a delicate balance that could affect the broader economic outlook and potentially market sentiment.