UBS raises USD/JPY forecast on elevated energy prices/ - Investing.com India
At a Glance
UBS has raised its USD/JPY forecast, citing elevated energy prices as a key driver, per the full note . The bank now sees the pair at 153.00 by Mar26, 155.00 by Jun26, and 150.00 by Dec26, diverging from the consensus median of 148.00 for Dec26. This revision places UBS above the median but below the upper bound of the 24-figure spread we track. The energy price channel remains the core catalyst, with no major Japanese or US data events in the near term to disrupt the trend.
Key Takeaways
- 01UBS raises USD/JPY Dec26 target to 150.00 on elevated energy prices, above consensus median of 148.00.
- 02The bank's view sits near the upper bound of our consensus range (140–164), with JPMorgan the most bullish at 164.
- 03Energy costs are seen as a structural driver, not cyclical, implying sustained JPY weakness.
- 04Contrary view from Morgan Stanley (140) and Goldman (148) hinges on BoJ rate hikes and lower energy prices.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
UBS argues that elevated energy prices will sustain USD/JPY strength by widening Japan's trade deficit and postponing the Bank of Japan's normalization timeline, per the full note . The desk frames this as a structural shift in the balance of payments rather than a cyclical adjustment, implying a higher equilibrium range for the pair.
The support for this thesis comes from the persistent rise in global energy costs, which UBS expects to keep Japanese import bills elevated through 2026. This dynamic undercuts the consensus view that BoJ rate hikes will drag USD/JPY lower, as the bank implicitly rejects the alternative read that energy prices will moderate sharply.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus median for Dec26 is 148.00, but the range spans from 140.00 (Morgan Stanley) to 164.00 (JPMorgan), a 24-figure spread. UBS's Dec26 target of 150.00 sits near the median but below the upper bound, reflecting a moderately bullish USD/JPY view relative to the median.
Firms aligned with a higher bias include jpmorgan (164.00), citi (152.00), and socgen (150.00). Contrary firms include goldman (148.00), morganstanley (140.00), and mufg (146.00), which are more bullish on JPY. UBS's call sits closer to the upper end of the consensus cluster, diverging from firms like Goldman and BofA that see a stronger yen.
How other firms see it
Aligned firms such as jpmorgan, citi, and socgen share UBS's skepticism on aggressive BoJ tightening, with targets ranging from 150 to 164 for Dec26. Contrary firms like morganstanley, goldman, and mufg anticipate a more hawkish BoJ and lower energy prices, driving USD/JPY to 140–148.
Related pairs to watch include EUR/JPY, which may also benefit from energy-driven USD strength, and the JPY crosses in general as oil prices dictate terms. The BoJ rate path remains the key intersection with this thesis, as any hawkish pivot would challenge UBS's call.
Market Implications
Watch USD/JPY for a test of 160.00 as energy prices keep upward pressure on the pair. The 157.00 spot level is near the Mar26 consensus; a break above 160.00 could trigger a shift in positioning toward UBS's view. No major calendar events in the next 30 days, but oil inventory data will be closely monitored.
USD/JPY — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Rabobank | Bullish | 145.00 |
ING | Bullish | 152.00 |
MUFG | Bullish | 152.00 |
From the original
UBS raises USD/JPY forecast on elevated energy prices/ Investing.com India
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