Will the Fed Hike?
From the original
Neither inflation nor the labor market call for a hike, but long yields may require one
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Per the full note [source], the Fed minutes revealed a surprisingly broad range of views, including explicit mention of rate hikes, which markets had not priced. The desk highlights that this hawkish tilt reduces the probability of near-term cuts, but the overarching caveat—dependent on inflation persistence—preserves optionality. With two-year yields edging higher and the labour market deemed stable by most members, the near-term path is data-dependent rather than directionally clear.