Yen volatility threshold is still too low to warrant MOF intervention - MUFG
USD/JPY — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
UOB | Bearish | 160.20 |
ING | Bullish | 152.00 |
Rabobank | Bullish | 145.00 |
From the original
USD/JPY has been a key focus in trading this week and all the while as oil prices ramp higher alongside bond yields, the currency pair is also gradually pushing up in hitting fresh 40-year highs. After some trepidation in May, it has been one-way traffic for the currency pair in
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Yen buying likely to stay more muted for the time being - MUFG
MUFG: Japan's FX warnings fall short of signalling imminent yen intervention
The desk believes that while the verbal intervention risk from Japan is rising, it does not currently indicate an imminent yen-buying operation. This perspective aligns with MUFG's assertion that elevated USD/JPY levels are a result of Fed policy more than yen-specific weakness. Market positioning should remain cautious as USD/JPY trades at fresh multi-year highs, above 161.95, yet historical precedent suggests any intervention may simply act as a temporary barrier rather than a sustaining reversal. Per the full note [source], policymakers have expressed readiness for action, but the situation does not warrant an immediate market reaction.