The European Central Bank sets the policy rate for the eurozone with a primary mandate of price stability. The Governing Council holds monetary policy meetings eight times per year.
All Firm Forecasts
| Firm | Spot | Dec 26 | Direction | Status | vs Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Morgan | 1.1500 | 1.2000 | Buy EUR | +0.8% | |
| Goldman Sachs | 1.1500 | 1.2500 | Buy EUR | +5.0% | |
| ING | 1.1550 | 1.2000 | Buy EUR | +0.8% | |
| Morgan Stanley | 1.1500 | 1.1600 | Buy EUR | -2.5% | |
| MUFG | 1.1533 | 1.2400 | Buy EUR | +4.2% | |
| Bank of America | 1.1550 | 1.2200 | Buy EUR | +2.5% | |
| Deutsche Bank | 1.1550 | 1.2500 | Buy EUR | +5.0% | |
| Barclays | 1.1500 | 1.2100 | Buy EUR | +1.7% | |
| ANZ | 1.1679 | 1.1400 | Sell EUR | -4.2% | |
| BNP Paribas | 1.1500 | 1.2100 | Buy EUR | +1.7% | |
| CIBC | 1.1533 | 1.2200 | Buy EUR | +2.5% | |
| Citi | 1.1500 | 1.1200 | Sell EUR | -5.9% | |
| Commerzbank | 1.1550 | 1.2200 | Buy EUR | +2.5% | |
| Crédit Agricole | 1.1679 | 1.1400 | Sell EUR | -4.2% | |
| Danske Bank | 1.1567 | 1.1200 | Sell EUR | -5.9% | |
| HSBC | 1.1700 | 1.1800 | Buy EUR | -0.9% | |
| Mizuho | 1.1600 | 1.1700 | Buy EUR | -1.7% | |
| Nomura | 1.1600 | 1.2000 | Buy EUR | +0.8% | |
| Nordea | 1.1679 | 1.2400 | Buy EUR | +4.2% | |
| Rabobank | 1.1550 | 1.1400 | Sell EUR | -4.2% | |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1.1600 | 1.2000 | Buy EUR | +0.8% | |
| Scotiabank | 1.1679 | 1.2200 | Buy EUR | +2.5% | |
| Société Générale | 1.1679 | 1.1400 | Sell EUR | -4.2% | |
| Standard Chartered | 1.1500 | 1.2000 | Buy EUR | +0.8% | |
| UBS | 1.1471 | 1.2000 | Buy EUR | +0.8% | |
| UOB | 1.1567 | 1.1445 | Sell EUR | -3.8% | |
| Wells Fargo | 1.1679 | 1.2000 | Buy EUR | +0.8% |
Bank Views on EUR
- J.P. MorganModerately Bullish
Moderately bullish on Eurozone growth and German fiscal expansion. Gains to be limited vs. 2025 unless US data materially weakens. High-side targets revised to 1.20 (from 1.22) on US resilience with periods of consolidation expected.
German fiscal spendingFed terminal rateRelative growth momentumReal yield differentials - Goldman SachsBullish
Bullish EUR on structural fiscal re-rating in Europe. German defense and infrastructure spending, combined with broader EU fiscal coordination, creates a multi-year tailwind. EUR/USD target of 1.25 reflects both USD weakness and EUR-specific strength. The 'different' part of dollar downside is that EUR captures a disproportionate share.
German fiscal expansionEU defense spendingFed easing cycleRelative growth convergence - INGBullish
Euro set to benefit from German fiscal expansion, improved Eurozone growth momentum, and a narrowing ECB-Fed rate differential. The fiscal impulse from defense spending and infrastructure investment provides a structural tailwind that should push EUR/USD above 1.20.
German fiscal expansionECB-Fed rate convergenceDefense spending boostImproved current account - Morgan StanleyBullish (H1), Fading (H2)
EUR/USD to benefit from German fiscal expansion and ECB pause in H1, reaching 1.23 by Q2. Gains reverse in H2 as US growth re-accelerates and rate differentials shift back. Net flat for the year but volatile path.
German fiscal stimulusECB terminal rateRelative growth momentumPortfolio rebalancing - MUFGBullish
EUR/USD is our top conviction trade for 2026. German fiscal expansion via the infrastructure fund and relaxed debt brake creates a genuine growth impulse. ECB terminal at 2.25% supports EUR yield. Targeting 1.24 by year-end, making MUFG one of the most bullish EUR houses.
German fiscal renaissanceECB terminal rateEuropean growth accelerationPortfolio rebalancing - Bank of AmericaBullish
EUR benefits from the European fiscal renaissance led by Germany's infrastructure spending. Twin deficit dynamics in the US and narrowing rate differentials favor EUR appreciation through 2026. Structural flows from reserve diversification also supportive.
German fiscal expansionNarrowing Fed-ECB spreadTwin deficit headwinds for USDReserve diversification flows - Deutsche BankStrongly Bullish
EUR/USD to 1.25 is our flagship call. The Great Rotation and German fiscal supercycle create the most bullish backdrop for EUR in a decade. Capital outflows from US assets, narrowing rate differentials, and structural reserve diversification all support EUR strength.
German fiscal supercycleCapital rotation from USFed-ECB convergenceReserve diversification - BarclaysModerately Bullish
EUR/USD to strengthen modestly to 1.21 on rate convergence and European fiscal expansion. Upside capped at 1.25 by residual US growth resilience. EUR gains more pronounced vs JPY, CHF than vs GBP. Range-trading approach preferred.
Rate convergence Fed-ECBGerman fiscal expansionUS growth resilience capReserve diversification - ANZBearish
Year-end target EUR/USD 1.1400 vs 1.1679 spot — sees EUR ~2.4% weaker the dollar.
- BNP ParibasBullish
BNP Paribas forecasts EUR/USD at 1.21 by Q4 2026 (5.2% higher vs current 1.15). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "Gradual USD depreciation in an Expansion regime; EUR and high-yield EM lead, Asia FX lags". Bullish stance on EUR reflects the firm's view on relative growth, policy paths, and capital flows over the year.
ECB policy trajectoryUS-Eurozone growth differentialEU fiscal coordinationExternal demand from China - CIBCBullish
Year-end target EUR/USD 1.2200 vs 1.1533 spot — sees EUR ~5.8% stronger the dollar.
- CitiBearish
Citi forecasts EUR/USD at 1.12 by Q4 2026 (2.6% lower vs current 1.15). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "Out-of-consensus bullish USD; cyclical re-acceleration drives a stronger dollar through H1, fading into year-end". Bearish stance on EUR reflects the firm's view on relative growth, policy paths, and capital flows over the year.
ECB policy trajectoryUS-Eurozone growth differentialEU fiscal coordinationExternal demand from China - CommerzbankBullish
Commerzbank forecasts EUR/USD at 1.22 by Q4 2026 (5.2% higher vs current 1.16). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "USD under pressure on excessive Fed cuts and Fed independence concerns; EUR overvalued but USD overvaluation greater". Bullish stance on EUR reflects the firm's view on relative growth, policy paths, and capital flows over the year.
ECB policy trajectoryUS-Eurozone growth differentialEU fiscal coordinationExternal demand from China - Crédit AgricoleBearish
Year-end target EUR/USD 1.1400 vs 1.1679 spot — sees EUR ~2.4% weaker the dollar.
- Danske BankBearish
Year-end target EUR/USD 1.1200 vs 1.1567 spot — sees EUR ~3.2% weaker the dollar.
- HSBCNeutral
HSBC forecasts EUR/USD at 1.18 by Q4 2026 (0.9% change vs current 1.17). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "USD softness extends as structural concerns dominate cyclical drivers". Neutral stance on EUR reflects the firm's view on relative growth, policy paths, and capital flows over the year.
ECB policy trajectoryUS-Eurozone growth differentialEU fiscal coordinationExternal demand from China - MizuhoNeutral
Mizuho forecasts EUR/USD at 1.17 by Q4 2026 (0.9% change vs current 1.16). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "Takaichi Fan Culture and the Future of JPY Depreciation — JPY depreciation enters its fifth year". Neutral stance on EUR reflects the firm's view on relative growth, policy paths, and capital flows over the year.
ECB policy trajectoryUS-Eurozone growth differentialEU fiscal coordinationExternal demand from China - NomuraBullish
Nomura forecasts EUR/USD at 1.2 by Q4 2026 (3.4% higher vs current 1.16). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "Overvalued dollar to weaken; Asia FX shines as US exceptionalism fades". Bullish stance on EUR reflects the firm's view on relative growth, policy paths, and capital flows over the year.
ECB policy trajectoryUS-Eurozone growth differentialEU fiscal coordinationExternal demand from China - NordeaBullish
Year-end target EUR/USD 1.2400 vs 1.1679 spot — sees EUR ~6.2% stronger the dollar.
- RabobankBearish
Year-end target EUR/USD 1.1400 vs 1.1550 spot — sees EUR ~1.3% weaker the dollar.
- RBC Capital MarketsBullish
RBC Capital Markets forecasts EUR/USD at 1.2 by Q4 2026 (3.4% higher vs current 1.16). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "Mild USD weakness; DM-Asia and EM outperformance; carry persists". Bullish stance on EUR reflects the firm's view on relative growth, policy paths, and capital flows over the year.
ECB policy trajectoryUS-Eurozone growth differentialEU fiscal coordinationExternal demand from China - ScotiabankBullish
Year-end target EUR/USD 1.2200 vs 1.1679 spot — sees EUR ~4.5% stronger the dollar.
- Société GénéraleNeutral
Société Générale forecasts EUR/USD at 1.14 by Q4 2026 (0.9% change vs current 1.15). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "EUR/USD peaks at 1.20 in H1 before consolidating to 1.14 by year-end as US growth re-accelerates". Neutral stance on EUR reflects the firm's view on relative growth, policy paths, and capital flows over the year.
ECB policy trajectoryUS-Eurozone growth differentialEU fiscal coordinationExternal demand from China - Standard CharteredBullish
Standard Chartered forecasts EUR/USD at 1.2 by Q4 2026 (4.3% higher vs current 1.15). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "Post-peak USD: gradual Fed easing, narrowing yield differentials and EM-friendly liquidity drive broad dollar weakness". Bullish stance on EUR reflects the firm's view on relative growth, policy paths, and capital flows over the year.
ECB policy trajectoryUS-Eurozone growth differentialEU fiscal coordinationExternal demand from China - UBSBullish
UBS forecasts EUR/USD at 1.2 by Q4 2026 (3.4% higher vs current 1.16). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "USD weakness extends; favor EUR, AUD, NOK; 2026 a pro-carry year". Bullish stance on EUR reflects the firm's view on relative growth, policy paths, and capital flows over the year.
ECB policy trajectoryUS-Eurozone growth differentialEU fiscal coordinationExternal demand from China - UOBBearish
Year-end target EUR/USD 1.1445 vs 1.1567 spot — sees EUR ~1.1% weaker the dollar.
- Wells FargoBullish
Year-end target EUR/USD 1.2000 vs 1.1679 spot — sees EUR ~2.7% stronger the dollar.
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