Euro: Sintra tone and CPI support gains against US Dollar – ING
The Euro has garnered support against the US Dollar following positive rhetoric from the Sintra forum and encouraging CPI data. This backdrop has propelled EUR/USD to its current spot at 1.1700, aligning with consensus forecasts for March 26. Notably, the ongoing narrative points to a strengthening Euro amid potential shifts in monetary policy, reinforcing bullish sentiment as inflationary pressures prompt market recalibrations.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently sits at 1.1700 (median across 12 firms), with UBS at the upper bound (1.2000) and Scotiabank at the lower (1.1200). This aligns closely with the positive stance highlighted by ING, suggesting a robust outlook for the Euro against the Dollar in the near term.
How firms align
Among the firms, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs share a bullish perspective, both targeting 1.1800 for March 26, which supports the upbeat narrative surrounding the Euro. Meanwhile, Scotiabank recently adjusted its target upwards to 1.1734 for the same tenor, indicating a growing consensus among firms favoring Euro strength at this juncture.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions indicate a bullish trend with firms like Scotiabank raising their March target to 1.1734, while JPMorgan and Goldman maintain a strong outlook of 1.1800. These adjustments reflect evolving market sentiments as echoed in our recent research on the ECB's approach (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path).
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Key takeaways
- 01Bullish momentum for the Euro as it holds at 1.1700; CPI data and Sintra meeting advantageous.
- 02Traders eyeing EUR/USD levels around 1.1800 for potential upward breaks.
- 03Key focus on upcoming ECB policy signals to further influence Euro's path.
Market implications
As the Euro maintains its strength at 1.1700, traders should watch for a breach of 1.1800 that could open further gains. The consensus target of 1.1700 still holds, yet upward revisions indicate bullish sentiment is gaining traction.
Risks to this view
Any signs of a shift in ECB policy towards a more dovish stance could quickly undermine these bullish projections. A downturn in economic data or a surprise in inflation metrics could also prompt skepticism about the Euro’s strength.
Sentiment by currency
USD-EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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