EUR/USD Price Forecast: Recovers further from March low, climbs to 1.1525 on weaker USD
The EUR/USD has seen a notable recovery, climbing to 1.1525, attributed to a weaker USD. This rebound represents a significant move from the March lows, which has prompted renewed interest among traders. Our analysis suggests that this upward momentum is supported by broader market dynamics, including recent softer economic data from the US that could influence Federal Reserve policy. As such, the resilience of the EUR demonstrates potential strength against the backdrop of mixed economic signals.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 for March, a median across a varied range of forecasts from firms such as Deutsche Bank at 1.1800 and MUFG at 1.1800, with UOB at the lower end of the spectrum at 1.1536. This positioning indicates a bullish sentiment aligning closely with the upward trajectory observed in EUR/USD pricing following the recent dip.
How firms align
Firms like HSBC and Barclays project targets at 1.1700 for March, which aligns with FXStreet's view that the EUR is strengthening against the USD. Notably, Deutsche Bank is a bit more optimistic at 1.1800, suggesting potential for further gains as macroeconomic conditions unfold. For detailed targets, refer to our internal reports on each firm for deeper insights.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions indicate a shift towards more robust EUR projections with several firms adjusting their targets upwards. ING and Commerzbank's recent increases highlight a growing consensus for the Euro's strength, while the broader market awaits incoming economic data that could further influence these positions.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD currently at 1.1567, reinforcing bullish sentiment in the FX markets.
- 02A softer USD leading to upward adjustments in forecasts.
- 03Watch for economic data from the US that may impact Fed policy directions.
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor 1.1700, which is both a consensus target and a psychological resistance level. Any break above this level could trigger a new bullish sentiment. Relevant economic releases next week could provide further catalysts or challenges.
Risks to this view
The outlook could be invalidated by a stronger-than-expected US economic report or signals of a hawkish shift from the Federal Reserve, which would likely drive the EUR/USD lower, potentially reversing the recent gains.
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro remains capped below 1.1525 weighed by post-Fed US Dollar strength
EUR/USD: Growth convergence and Fed repricing – ABN AMRO
Growth convergence between eurozone and US combined with Fed repricing cycle narrows rate differentials, supporting EUR/USD revaluation.
Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment turns positive 10.5 in June: What it means for EUR/USD?
Positive German ZEW sentiment shift reduces eurozone recession risk premium and supports EUR/USD near-term, though index level remains historically weak.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Struggles to return above 20-day EMA, eyes on Fed policy
EUR/USD rejection at 20-day EMA with focus shifting to Fed policy signals technical weakness ahead of potential rate decision signals.
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