EUR/USD Price Forecast: Testing 11-month lows at 1.3991 amid broad US Dollar strength
The EUR/USD pair is under pressure, currently probing 11-month lows around 1.3991 as aggressive US Dollar strength continues to dominate. The broader market dynamics suggest a significant divergence between US and Eurozone economic outlooks that is skewing sentiment in favor of the USD. This development is critical as traders reassess their positions ahead of key forthcoming economic data and central bank communications. Specifically, the sharp decline towards these lows reflects growing concerns about the Eurozone's growth trajectory relative to a resilient US economy.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently sits at 1.1700 (median across 11 firms), while Deutsche Bank leans towards the upper bound at 1.2500 and Citi at the lower end with 1.1300. The current market action appears more aligned with the lower target range suggested by several firms, indicating a bearish perspective on the Euro.
How firms align
Specific firms such as Citi and UOB have markedly more pessimistic targets at 1.1300 and 1.1536 respectively for March 2026, suggesting a bearish sentiment that's consistent with the recent price behavior highlighted by the publisher. Conversely, Deutsche Bank forecasts a higher target of 1.1800, indicating some variance in anticipated performance.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions have started to reflect this bearish sentiment, particularly with firms like Danske Bank adjusting their March 2026 target to 1.1866. Notably, our published research (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path) highlights the ongoing divergence in market expectations regarding the ECB’s rate path versus the Federal Reserve’s.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD tests 11-month lows, currently at 1.3991.
- 02Broad USD strength highlights divergence with Eurozone growth concerns.
- 03Key resistance near 1.1700; a break could signal further downside.
- 04Market eyes upcoming economic data for directional cues.
Market implications
Investors should monitor the 1.1700 level closely as a potential breakout point. Should the dollar continue to strengthen, it could push the EUR/USD to new lows, aligning with the median consensus target of 1.1700. The upcoming ECB meeting will also be critical in shaping short-term expectations.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this bearish outlook could occur if upcoming Eurozone economic data surpasses expectations or if the Federal Reserve indicates a shift towards a more dovish stance. Such catalysts could strengthen the Euro and challenge current bearish forecasts.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Rate spread pressure EUR against US Dollar – Danske Bank
Widening US-EU rate differential creates structural headwind for EUR/USD as carry trades favor dollar positioning.
Euro languishes near three-month lows against US Dollar despite progress in US-Iran talks
EUR/USD weakness persists despite risk-on conditions from Iran talks, suggesting USD strength is driven by macro fundamentals rather than risk sentiment.
Euro: Policy divergence supports against US Dollar – Rabobank
ECB-Fed policy divergence cited as structural EUR/USD support; widening rate differentials may limit dollar strength near-term despite US growth resilience.
Euro: Test of 1.140 seen before recovery against US Dollar – ING
ING positioning for EUR/USD test of 1.140 signals near-term dollar strength before mean reversion; watch for support breaks that could accelerate dips.
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