Euro: Test of 1.140 seen before recovery against US Dollar – ING
ING's outlook for the euro suggests a potential test of 1.140 in the EUR/USD pair, signaling a near-term strengthening of the dollar. This forecast indicates a challenging environment for the euro, highlighting bearish sentiment as market dynamics favor the dollar. The proposed test of 1.140 is a critical pivot point that, if broken, could lead to further declines in the euro, emphasizing the importance of market positioning over the coming weeks.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is currently at 1.1700 (median across 10 firms), with firms like UBS and Barclays at the higher end of the range (1.2000) and Citi at the lower end (1.1300). ING's forecast aligns with the bearish sentiment; however, it is at a lower target of 1.140 for March 2026, reflecting a cautious stance compared to the consensus.
How firms align
Several firms maintain more bullish positions compared to ING's outlook. For instance, Deutsche Bank projects a target of 1.1800 for March 2026, suggesting a more positive view on the euro's potential recovery. This contrasts with ING's more cautious approach. These targets can be referenced in our internal reports for detailed insights.
What the data shows
Recent adjustments in forecasts reflect this bearish sentiment, with firms like Commerzbank revising their March 2026 target to 1.1900. Our published research highlights the current euro underperformance, indicating it trades 3.3% below the December 2026 consensus of 1.20, which is supported by insights from /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01ING anticipates a test of 1.140 for EUR/USD, underscoring dollar strength.
- 02Traders should be prepared for potential euros trading around 1.140 in the coming weeks.
- 03Breaks below 1.140 could accelerate downward momentum for the euro.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the EUR/USD closely, especially as it approaches the 1.140 level highlighted by ING. The upcoming ECB meeting could influence market sentiments, particularly regarding interest rates and euro support dynamics.
Risks to this view
A stronger-than-expected economic data release from the Eurozone could invalid this bearish view, prompting a swift euro rebound. Additionally, any shifts in the Fed's monetary policy stance could also pose risks to the dollar's strength.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.60
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Policy divergence supports against US Dollar – Rabobank
ECB-Fed policy divergence cited as structural EUR/USD support; widening rate differentials may limit dollar strength near-term despite US growth resilience.
Euro weakens against US Dollar as hawkish Fed bets hog limelight
Market repricing Fed hold probability higher amid hawkish rhetoric, widening rate differential favoring USD/EUR longs.
Euro: Pressured as US Dollar stays firm – Danske Bank
USD strength persisting creates headwind for EUR positioning; monitor if dollar momentum extends into risk assets or remains defensive-driven.
Euro: Consolidation before potential slide against US Dollar – UOB
UOB technical outlook suggests EUR/USD weakness ahead, implying near-term USD strength following consolidation phase.
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