EUR/USD Price Forecast: Approaches 1.1400 as bearish flag remains in play
The EUR/USD pair approaches the critical threshold of 1.1400, with technical indicators suggesting continued downside momentum. The bearish flag formation highlighted in the source implies potential for further declines, primarily driven by algorithmic trading that targets key support levels. Market sentiment aligns closely with a bearish view on the euro, a factor amplified by recent data releases and economic outlooks that weigh against the currency, prompting skepticism about its near-term recovery prospects.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently sits at 1.1700 (median across 11 firms), with UBS at the upper bound (1.2000) and Citi at the lower bound (1.1300). The bearish stance represented in the source article aligns closely with Standard Chartered's projection of 1.1400 for March 2026.
How firms align
Standard Chartered adopts a bearish view, forecasting 1.1400 for March 2026, consistent with the bearish flag indicated in the source. Conversely, firms like Goldman's and JPMorgan's targets of 1.1800 reflect a more bullish outlook, suggesting divergence from the bearish sentiment expressed in the article. You can explore this through our internal reporting on these firms: /reports/stanchart and /reports/goldman.
What the data shows
In recent weeks, several firms have revised targets downwards, indicating a shift in sentiment, with Scotiabank adjusting to 1.1734 and Deutsche Bank aiming for 1.1800 by March. This supports the bearish narrative and is echoed in our publication on ECB rate paths: /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD approaching 1.1400; bearish signals confirm potential downside.
- 02Watch for algorithmic traders to trigger stop-loss orders.
- 03A sustained break below 1.1400 could prompt additional selling pressure.
Market implications
Next, market participants will focus on critical support levels around 1.1400, assessing positioning leading up to key ECB meetings and economic releases. Maintaining below our consensus target of 1.1700 may indicate worsening sentiment toward the euro.
Risks to this view
A robust economic data print from the Eurozone or a dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve could invalidate the current bearish stance. Breaks above 1.1800 may signal a stabilization of the euro against the dollar, reversing recent downtrends.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.60
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Downside risk toward key supports against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD bears have identified technical support breaks as near-term risk; USD strength narrative remains intact absent ECB policy shift.
Eurozone flash HICP cools faster-than-expected to 2.8% in June: What it means for EUR/USD?
Faster-than-expected disinflation to 2.8% increases ECB rate-cut probability in H2, pressuring EUR/USD toward parity support.
Euro: Sideways bias within defined band against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Weakens to near 1.1400 as ECB hike bets recede, bearish vibe prevails
ECB rate hike expectations fading pressures EUR/USD toward 1.1400; watch for further dovish pivot risk.
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