Euro: Support zone key for next leg against US Dollar – UOB
The Euro continues to hover around the key support zone as it trades at 1.1434 against the US Dollar. UOB emphasizes the importance of this level for the next directional move, highlighting that the market's sentiment is currently neutral. This stability comes in the context of varying forecasts among major financial institutions, with some projecting a considerable upward movement for the Euro while others remain cautious. Understanding the dynamics at this support will be crucial for traders navigating the pair in the coming weeks.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target presently stands at 1.1700 for March 2026, spanning a range from 1.1300 to 1.2000 among various firms. In contrast, UOB suggests potential movements from this support level, which aligns closer to the higher targets of some firms. Commerzbank, for instance, sits at 1.1900, while Citi projects a more conservative 1.1300.
How firms align
Several firms align well with the bullish sentiment implied by UOB's focus on support levels. Commerzbank at 1.1900 and Goldman Sachs at 1.1800 are among those indicating a stronger Euro. Conversely, Citi forecasts a target of only 1.1300, providing a bearish counterpoint. For a deeper analysis of individual firm strategies, refer to our internal reports on Commerzbank and Citi.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions have seen Goldman and MUFG adjusting their March 2026 targets to 1.1800, suggesting growing confidence in Euro strength. Additionally, our published research (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path) highlights that the EUR/USD is trading significantly below the December 2026 consensus, indicating potential room for recovery.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Euro at a critical support level of 1.1434 against USD, requires careful monitoring.
- 02Traders should note the divergence in forecasts among firms regarding EUR/USD direction.
- 03Potential upward bias exists, especially if Euro remains above the 1.1400 support.
- 04Unexpected changes in ECB policy or US economic data could alter the Euro's trajectory.
Market implications
Next week, watch for any breach of the 1.1400 level that could signal a change in market sentiment. The upcoming ECB meeting will also provide important insights into the central bank's view and potential shifts in monetary policy, aligning with our consensus target of 1.1700.
Risks to this view
A significant change in US economic data or a hawkish shift from the Federal Reserve could undermine the Euro's support. Specifically, a tightening of US monetary policy could challenge the Euro's recent stability against the dollar.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Early gains against US Dollar at risk on Fed story – ING
Fed narrative reassertion threatens to reverse modest EUR/USD strength; monitor Fed speakers for hawkish messaging that could trigger dollar demand.
Euro: Hawkish Fed keeps gains contained against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Fed hawkish stance caps EUR/USD upside; expect resistance near recent highs as rate differential supports dollar through near term.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bears retain control within descending channel
Sustained bearish structure in EUR/USD suggests technical breakdown risks remain elevated if support breaks below the channel floor.