Euro: Upside bias held above strong support against US Dollar – UOB
The euro is currently positioned above key support levels against the US dollar, reinforcing an upside bias that traders may capitalize on. UOB's analysis indicates this technical setup could encourage buying on dips, particularly near the 1.08-1.09 range. With limited near-term downside risks, the outlook for EUR/USD remains bullish, especially as market sentiment shifts in favor of the euro amidst broader USD weakness.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target presently stands at 1.1700 (median across 12 firms), with Commerzbank at the upper end (1.1900) and Citi at the lower end (1.1300). This reflects a generally optimistic perspective towards the euro's performance relative to the dollar, aligning with UOB's bullish framing.
How firms align
Firms such as Commerzbank and MUFG maintain a bullish stance with targets of 1.1900 and 1.1800 respectively for March 2026, which support the underlying positive sentiment expressed by UOB. Conversely, Citi remains cautious with a more bearish outlook, projecting only 1.1300 for the same period, as seen in our internal coverage on /reports/citi.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions highlight shifts in expectations, with firms like Goldman adjusting their target for March 2026 upward to 1.1800, reflecting enhanced optimism. For more context, see our research on /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path, which discusses the divergence in the market's expectations for EUR/USD.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD currently holding significant support above 1.08.
- 02Traders eye potential buy opportunities on dips.
- 03Citi's lower target at 1.1300 highlights contrasting views.
- 04UOB's outlook reinforces bullish sentiment in the market.
Market implications
Investors should closely monitor the 1.08 support level as a potential pivot point for bullish strategies. Upcoming European economic data releases could further influence positioning towards our consensus target of 1.1700.
Risks to this view
A break below the 1.08 support level could invalidate the bullish view for EUR/USD, opening room for further downside. Additionally, a shift in Fed policy or unexpectedly stronger US economic data could also compel traders to reassess their positions.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro Summer range holds against US Dollar – Commerzbank
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Turns broadly sideways below 20-day EMA
Euro: Soft tone against US Dollar with stable ECB expectations – Scotiabank
ECB's hold pattern removes upside catalyst for EUR/USD near-term, favoring USD strength on rate differential persistence.